Expect Jaguars to disrupt host Texans
Top wagering picks for NFL Week 12 based on lines from BetMGM:
Steelers at Bengals
The Bengals will be without star quarterback Joe Burrow, but Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was just 15 of 28 as a passer against the Browns in the Steelers’ Week 11 13-10 loss. Outside of Jaylen Warren’s 74-yard run, the Steelers scored just three points and had just 175 total yards. It was an ugly game, and the Bengals, with Jake Browning and his elite receivers, should still stand a chance at home, especially with 10 days of rest. The Steelers have scored 10 points in two of their last four games and 17 or fewer points in four of their last seven. If Browning and company can at least be competent, which he did prove he could be when thrust into the Thursday night battle in Week 11, then Cincinnati can cover here. The Bengals are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) on the season. Back the BENGALS (+1).
Browns at Broncos
The Broncos are just 4-6 over/under this season and have gone Under in four straight games, mainly due to their rocksolid defense. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their past five games, and they held the Chiefs and Bills to a combined 31 points back-to-back over the last month. The defense is legit, and as we saw against the Vikings, the offense struggles to cap off drives. The Browns are 4-5-1 O/U on the season, and they will have a backup, QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, in the game. He was just 24 of 43 against the Steelers and had 165 yards and an interception. There’s no real reason to believe he’ll come alive against a surging Broncos defense. The Browns are 1-2 O/U over their last three games. Back the UNDER (35.5).
Jaguars at Texans
Jacksonville hasn’t been great at all moments this season, but it has covered for bettors as of late. The Jags are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games and are 5-0 ATS when not playing at their home. Jacksonville has a trusted quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a solid amount of offensive options around him. It has also held five of its last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. While the Texans have been scorching hot and have covered in five of their past eight games, they are just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Houston beat Arizona by five but failed to cover as a 5.5-point home favorite in Week 11. Houston just hasn’t lived up to the hype at home, and on a three-game winning streak, it would be a good spot for the Texans to fade them here. Back the JAGUARS (-1.5).