Jaguars (7-3) at Texans (6-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Spread (BetMGM):
Jaguars by 1.5
Jaguars’ keys to victory: Ball security is key. In these teams’ Week 3 meeting, failing to protect the ball compromised Jacksonville’s attempt to establish a run game. The Jaguars skill-position players beat defenses with speed and misdirection. QB Trevor Lawrence should use his legs to keep the pass rush honest. The Jaguars must also get WRs Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk going early. Opportunities for sack-fumbles are available, which means DEs Travon Walker and Josh Allen have to set the edge.
Texans’ keys to victory: As RB Devin Singletary has produced the team’s lone 100-yard performance the last two weeks, Houston should recognize a pattern, even if starter Dameon Pierce returns to the lineup. A ground game would be welcome after rookie QB C.J. Stroud threw three interceptions in Week 11. In the Week 3 meeting at Jacksonville, rookie DE Will Anderson had a blocked field goal attempt. Similarly, any big play contribution from Anderson would set the tone in this battle for first place in the division.
Matchup to watch: Jaguars CB Tre Herndon vs. Texans WR Tank Dell. The Texans find ways to get the third-round wideout his touches. Herndon has to be up for the challenge to stay with the shifty receiver and limit his opportunities to make chunk plays.
Who wins? Coaching is a factor as Doug Pederson has been in more big division games than DeMeco Ryans. Nevertheless, the Texans have claimed wins against the AFC’s best in Mike Tomlin and Zac Taylor.
Jaguars, 31-27
Mark Lane, Texans Wire