Think underdogs vs. spread in title games
Top wagering picks for college football Week 14 based on lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
New Mexico State (10-3) at No. 22 Liberty (12-0)
These teams meet in the Conference USA title game. The job coach Jerry Kill has done at New Mexico State has been extraordinary. The Aggies finished second in Conference USA to Liberty, and the only losses for the Aggies came against UMass on Aug. 26, at Liberty on Sept. 9 and at Hawaii on Sept. 23. They have won eight in a row, including a 31-10 rout at Auburn. During the eightgame winning streak, New Mexico State has covered. Meanwhile, Liberty was one of five unbeaten teams. However, the Flames are just 5-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past nine games, and Liberty is 2-4 ATS in the past six games as a double-digit favorite. The Aggies are much better than when the Flames saw them earlier in the fall.
Pick: New Mexico State (+10; line from Bovada)
Miami (Ohio) (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1)
The last time we saw these teams play, it was Oct. 21 at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. Toledo picked up a 21-17 win as a 2.5-point favorite as the Under (46.5) cashed. Rockets QB Dequan Finn was the hero of the day, throwing for two touchdowns while running for another score. Toledo has won 11 in a row since losing the regular-season opener at Illinois on Sept. 2, and the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in the past five outings, including the first meeting with the RedHawks. Miami is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 games overall. The Redhawks have cashed their past two games as an underdog of 7.5 or more points, including a win at Cincinnati on Sept. 16 in its last game as a double-digit underdog.
Pick: Miami (Ohio) (+8.5)
No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 17 Iowa (10-2)
The Wolverines covered as threepoint
favorites against Ohio State, but they’re just 2-2 ATS in the past four games. Michigan has failed to cover the past two times as a double-digit favorite, and it is just 4-5-1 ATS this season when favored by 10 or more points. Meanwhile, Iowa won the Big Ten West, relying heavily on its defense. The Hawkeyes offense struggled, and it lost Michigan transfers QB Cade McNamara and TE Erick All to season-ending knee injuries. The defense, though, is fierce, allowing just 279.9 total yards per game, 105.6 rushing yards and 12.2 points per game. It doesn’t have the offense to hang with Michigan in a track meet, but it has the defense to do so.
Pick: Iowa (+23.5)
No. 14 Louisville (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida State (12-0)
Florida State topped Florida to remain unbeaten. The result keeps the Seminoles in good shape for a playoff spot if it can win. But will it? Florida State QB Tate Rodemaker was not good in Gainesville, completing less than half of his 25 passes with no touchdowns, and he was sacked for a safety. It was all about RB Trey Benson, who had three touchdown runs. While Louisville wasn’t great defensively in the season-ending loss to Kentucky, it has been very good overall. The Cards allow just 96.8 rushing yards per game and 314.7 total yards per contest. Louisville not only has a chance to cover, Florida State is prime to get beat.
Pick: Louisville (+2.5)