Rely on Packers and Patriots in Week 16

Top wagering picks for NFL Week 16 based on lines from BetMGM:

Patriots at Broncos

The Broncos offense cannot be trusted to cover this size of a spread. Denver has scored more than 24 points in just one of its last 10 games. The Broncos are 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite and are 0-2-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or more. Denver doesn’t have a dynamic enough offense to score and pull away, especially against a Patriots team that showed life against the Chiefs. The Broncos went on a hot streak for bettors earlier in the season but are 2-3 ATS over their past five games. New England covered as a 10.5-point underdog in its Week 15 27-17 loss to the Chiefs. The Pats have covered in two straight and have four of their past six games end within five points. Take PATRIOTS (+6.5).

Cardinals at Bears

The Cardinals offense may finally be back. Arizona has solid options in the backfield and out wide and QB Kyler Murray hit has his stride. Arizona has scored 24 or more in two straight games and is 8-6 Over/Under (O/U) on the season. The Cards defense has been awful lately as well, allowing 37 or more in two of their past three games. The Bears are 7-7 O/U but have tallied 26 or more points in two of their past four games. The point for this game is that neither team will be able to keep the other off the field; both rank at the bottom of the NFL in opponents thirddown conversion rate. Back the (44.5).

Packers at Panthers

The Panthers aren’t proving to be very good. Despite their win last weekend, their offense has been absent the past few weeks. Carolina has scored single digits in two straight weeks and has tallied 13 or fewer in six of its past seven games. The Panthers are 3-9-2 ATS on the season and 2-3-1 ATS at home. The Packers have a more competent offense than most would think. They have tallied 20 or more points in five straight weeks and are 3-2 ATS over their past five games. While the Green Bay defense has been far off preseason expectations, the Panthers haven’t been able to score on anyone. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS when its opponent scores 20 or fewer. Take the

(-4.5).

MARK J. REBILAS/ USA TODAY SPORTS Kyler Murray is back putting up points for the Cardinals.