Colts (8-6) at Falcons (6-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MercedesBenz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: Fox
Spread (BetMGM):
Colts by 2
Colts’ keys to victory: Indianapolis is on an incredible run with QB Gardner Minshew coming up big in recent weeks. To beat the Falcons, the Colts need to stay balanced and take their shots downfield when the opportunities arise. Defensively, Indianapolis must get pressure on Falcons QB Desmond Ridder. The second-year quarterback has struggled with turnovers this season and he will put the ball in harm’s way on occasion.
Falcons’ keys to victory: Feeding RB Bijan Robinson the ball doesn’t seem like a complicated concept, but Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has limited the rookie’s touches throughout the season. With three games remaining, it’s time to let Robinson take over. Aside from the running game, Atlanta’s offensive line will need to hold up against Indianapolis’ plethora of pass rushers. Defensively, the secondary has to be opportunistic when Minshew puts the ball up for grabs. The Falcons need to stop the run and prevent Indianapolis from controlling the line of scrimmage.
Matchup to watch: Falcons OT Jake Matthews vs. Colts DE Samson Ebukam. Matthews has been banged up, but he remains a steady force at left tackle when healthy. He will have his work cut out for him trying to slow the veteran edge rusher, who has 5 sacks over the past four games.
Who wins: While the Falcons have played their best at home this season, the Colts are playing better over the last month. Atlanta will have trouble slowing down Indianapolis even with key players returning.
Colts, 24-20