Jaguars (8-6) at Bucs (7-7)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
TV:
Spread (BetMGM): Buccaneers by 1
Jaguars’ keys to victory: Jacksonville should keep an eye on Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, who has been a weapon in space in both the running game and passing game. Last week, Packers RB Aaron Jones showed that the Bucs’ run defense is susceptible (before the team stopped running him), so the Jags would do well to keep White going all day. Being good defensively on third down would do well for the Jags, too – that’s usually where QB Baker Mayfield and the Bucs make their money, so getting disciplined there could be big.
Buccaneers’ keys to victory: The Jaguars’ pass defense isn’t stellar, so if Mayfield plays like he did against the Packers, the Bucs will be in business. Tampa Bay’s secondary has been awful, and if the Bucs want to get in playoff mode, they’ll have to tighten up against QB Trevor Lawrence if he exits concussion protocol and his crew. The run game staggered a bit against the Packers; it’ll need to come back to beat the Jags.
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Jaguars CB Darious Williams. Evans caught a touchdown pass against the Packers but was relatively quiet otherwise. That said, he’s liable to be a huge problem at any given moment. Williams is one of the best corners in the NFL this year and will almost certainly be keeping an eye on Evans.
Who wins? The Bucs have won three in a row and seem ready to make a statement as the leaders of the NFC South, but this Jaguars team is far more seasoned and more complete.
Jaguars, 31-26