Back the Bucs, Bears but not Jags to score

Top wagering picks for NFL Week 17 based on lines from BetMGM:

The Saints have been free falling as of late while the Buccaneers are surging. New Orleans has covered in just two of its last seven games, and those covers were against the Giants and Panthers. It has failed to cover three straight games as an underdog. The opposite can be said of Tampa Bay, which has been dominating behind the improved play of QB Baker Mayfield. The Bucs have covered three in a row and in seven of their last nine. They have won four straight games, winning each by three or more points. Tampa Bay has the firepower to put up points on a lacking Saints defense that has allowed 30 or more points in two of their last four. New Orleans is playing its worst football while the Bucs are heating back up. At home as field goal favorites, take BUCCANEERS (-3).

Panthers at Jaguars

Who is going to score in this game? Since Trevor Lawrence’s ankle injury several weeks ago, he hasn’t looked the same, and he’s battled a concussion over the last few weeks as well. Things don’t look good for the young quarterback, and Jacksonville has gone under in two straight, scoring a combined 19 points over their last two games. The Panthers have a surprising strong pass defense, so while they haven’t been unbeatable this season by a long shot, they do typically keep big plays at bay. Carolina is 5-10 Over/Under (O/U) and has gone under in seven of their last nine games, scoring 10 or fewer in four of their last six. The Panthers put it on a very beatable Packers defense, scoring 30 in Week 16. That won’t be the same against a Jags defense that is tough on third downs. Either offense has proved inconstant while the defenses have been reliable. Take UNDER (37.5).

Falcons at Bears

This feels like a trap line as the Bears shouldn’t be favored despite being at home against a Falcons team that is capable of making the playoffs, right? Well, Chicago is playing very well. It has won three of its last four games and has covered in four of its last five. The Bears are 7-6-2 ATS on the season. The last time they didn’t push or cover at home was in Week 6, posting a 3-0-1 ATS record since. The Falcons started the season 2-0 but are 1-2 over their last three games. The last few months haven’t been great for Atlanta. It has covered in just three of their last eight games and is 1-3 ATS over its last four home games. The Falcons are just 1-2 ATS as an underdog as well. Take the BEARS (-3).

NATHAN RAY SEEBECK/USA TODAY SPORTS Baker Mayfield has thrown eight touchdowns against no interceptions the past three games. His Bucs have won four in a row.