Texans (9-7) at Colts (9-7)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis TV: ESPN/ABC
Spread (BetMGM):
Colts by 1
Texans’ keys to victory: Giving QB C.J. Stroud protection and time in the pocket will be vital. Stroud can have success against Indy’s zone-heavy defense with time to go through progressions. Leaning on WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz as the top targets in the passing game can lead to chunk plays, while RB Devin Singletary can balance the offense between the tackles. Defensively, the pass rush must come through. DEs Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson will aim to generate consistent pressure leading the pass rush. In the secondary, CB Derek Stingley and S Jalen Pitre must contain a passing game that will look to push the ball downfield.
Colts’ keys to victory: Balance offensively will be the key for Indy. Making sure RB Jonathan Taylor is regularly involved will help keep some of the pressure off QB Gardner Minshew. Taylor should be the focal point of the offense, while WR Michael Pittman Jr. must be heavily targeted to keep the box light. On the other side of the ball, DT DeForest Buckner will need to lead a relentless pass rush. CB Kenny Moore II, along with rookie CBs JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, must contain the Texans’ potent passing attack and limit deep shots down the field.
Matchup to watch: Texans’ Greenard vs. Colts’ offensive tackles. If the Colts can limit Greenard’s pass-rush prowess, the offense has a chance. Conversely, Houston can dominate possession if Greenard is let loose.
Who wins? The Colts get the slight edge at home.
Colts, 27-24