Falcons (7-9) at Saints (8-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: CBS
Spread (BetMGM):
Saints by 3.5
Falcons’ keys to victory: The Falcons are built to run, and RB Bijan Robinson should continue getting the lion’s share of carries. With a trying quarterback situation, the more Atlanta can do to take weight off Taylor Heinicke’s shoulders, the better. Defensively, the Falcons must win at the line of scrimmage and avoid biting on play-action now that the Saints have made it such a staple. DB Jessie Bates III may have his hands full keeping up with New Orleans TE Juwan Johnson vertically, but he’s been up to the task before.
Saints’ keys to victory: Getting to the quarterback. New Orleans must find ways to run on the Falcons, but that’s going to be tough if RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) can’t play. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on QB Derek Carr, and the New Orleans offensive line will have its hands full against a wellcoached Atlanta defensive front. When the Falcons have the ball, it’s vital that the Saints defense keep up the pressure itself.
Matchup to watch: Falcons WR Drake London vs. Saints CB Paulson Adebo. London has started drawing more targets as of late, and Atlanta needs to get him going to attack the Saints defense from all angles. Adebo has played him well in the past, but there’s a size mismatch to be exploited here.
Who wins? These teams are more evenly matched than you might think, but they both have a lot on the line. They are hoping for a long-shot playoff berth. It’s going to be dramatic and probably sloppy. But the Saints have done a better job using the talent on their roster.
Saints, 23-17