Rams (9-7) at 49ers (12-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California TV: Fox
Spread (BetMGM):
49ers by 3.5
Rams’ keys to victory: Because of a mild calf strain and with San Francisco having secured homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs as the top seed, RB Christian McCaffrey won’t play, so Los Angeles’ defense will concentrate on slowing 49ers QB Brock Purdy. It’s also critical for Los Angeles to tackle in the open field because the 49ers have some of the league’s most elusive ball carriers, namely WR Deebo Samuel. On offense, the Rams have to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns and avoid costly turnovers.
49ers’ keys to victory: The Rams offense has gone through RB Kyren Williams in recent weeks, so the 49ers have to gear up to stop him on the ground. However, when they do that, they also have to respect WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who feast against zone coverage. If the 49ers can pressure QB Matthew Stafford and force him to throw before he wants to, they can create a turnover or two, which will limit the Rams’ possessions and potentially give San Francisco good field position.
Matchup to watch: Rams LB Ernest Jones vs. 49ers TE George Kittle. Kittle can be a game-changer on offense for the 49ers, but the Rams have an excellent linebacker in Jones who can match up well with the dynamic tight end.
Who wins? As well as the Rams are playing, the 49ers are simply the better team and have an offense that’s tough to stop. As long as Purdy doesn’t throw multiple interceptions like he did in Week 16, the 49ers will win a close one, even with the NFC’s top seed locked up.
49ers, 30-27