Bills (10-6) at Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
TV: NBC
Spread (BetMGM):
Bills by 3
Bills’ keys to victory: Buffalo barely escaped with a win over the Patriots last weekend to force this game for the division this weekend. To steal the AFC East from Miami, the Bills need QB Josh Allen to play up to his ability, which hasn’t always happened this season. He needs to deliver the ball to his top receivers in open space and avoid turning the ball over. If the Bills can get RB James Cook going as well, they should have success against a Dolphins front that struggled to slow down Baltimore’s rushing attack last weekend.
Dolphins’ keys to victory: QB Tua Tagovailoa struggled to find consistency in Week 17. Now, against a defense and a coaching staff that knows him pretty well, he’ll have to get the ball into the hands of WR Tyreek Hill and RB De’Von Achane, who both have dynamic play-making skills. Tagovailoa has thrown more interceptions in 2023 than in any other year of his career, a pattern he can’t afford to continue in this game.
Matchup to watch: Dolphins’ Hill vs. Bills’ secondary. It’s tough to say who will draw the short stick and have to cover Hill, but he will have his work cut out for him. The wideout leads the league in receiving yards despite missing a game. He set the team’s singleseason record in that statistic for the second year in a row.
Who wins? Miami may have had an embarrassing performance against the Ravens, but the Dolphins are 7-1 at home. That advantage should help Miami win a close one to secure its first division title since 2008.
Dolphins, 27-24