Thunder just might be contenders. Why make a trade?
After beating the Celtics, rookie center Chet Holmgren turned to a Thunder staffer and confirmed the date: Jan. 2.
“We have over 50 games of the regular season left to play,” Holmgren said, “so us worrying about playing in the NBA Finals when it’s Jan. 2, we’re gonna miss out on so many opportunities that are right here in front of us to get better.”
NBA Finals? My how things have changed in Oklahoma City.
It sounds absurdly premature, and maybe it is, but here’s a sampling of wins the Thunder have recorded in the past month or so: at Denver (twice), vs. Clippers, vs. Timberwolves, vs. Celtics.
Five wins, coming against the Nuggets (the defending champs), the Clippers (fourth in the West and winners of nine straight before losing in OKC), the Timberwolves (which was atop the West over the second-place Thunder), and the Celtics (the best team in the East and owners of the best record in the NBA).
“I think it says that we’re really playing together and we’re prioritizing winning over anything else,” Holmgren said. “But as far as long term, it doesn’t really prove anything, I guess you could say. It doesn’t satisfy anybody. We know we have a long way to go.”
Remember when the Thunder were beating up on bad teams and losing to good teams?
Well, now it’s beating up on bad teams and beating good teams. OKC (23-11) is 13-4 against teams below .500 and 10-7 against teams above .500.
But if these past few weeks have opened the Thunder’s eyes, think again.
“To be honest with you, none of that goes through our minds,” said Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who naturally plays things cool. “Every day we come to work the same way. Before games we have shootarounds the same way. We practice the same way. I think we all stay in the moment, and I think that’s why we’ve been able to get better.”
SGA echoed Mark Daigneault’s script. “We’ve had some early success,” the Thunder coach said, “but if we want to continue to have success we have to keep getting better, and I think we have a group that understands that.”
Better doesn’t do the Thunder justice. Two seasons removed from winning 24 games, the Thunder have the statistical profile of a legitimate title contender.
OKC ranked at or near the top five in defensive rating. In a recent measure, the Thunder had an 8.1 net rating (outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions). That was third best behind the 76ers (10.4) and Celtics (10.0). The Nuggets were fourth at 5.7. For context, anything above a 6.0 net rating is historically elite.
The Thunder’s 2011-12 NBA Finals team had a 6.3 net rating – outscoring opponents by 1.8 fewer points per 100 possessions than this Thunder squad. The thing we said would never happen again, a Thunder team with a prodigious Big Three akin to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, might be happening.
I’m not saying Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will all win an MVP award – although would anyone be floored if the first two did? – but general manager Sam Presti and Co. looks to have done it again, compiling a collection of young talent that’s the envy of the league.
Not just a collection of talent, but parts that have snapped together as tightly as the maple panels on the court in which they play.
Why would anyone be in a rush to alter the Thunder’s recipe before the missing ingredient becomes obvious? Because right about now, things are smelling pretty good. The Thunder might add a dash of something before next month’s trade deadline, but changing the whole flavor profile sounds bananas at this point.
Do the Thunder need a bigger big man? Heck, I don’t know. The team is winning nearly 70% of its games as is and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to encroach upon Holmgren’s development or cramp the court for Gilgeous-Alexander.
We’re only talking about the Thunder making a move because they have the means to do so. That doesn’t mean they should make a move, though. I’m far from the first to say it, but maybe the Thunder are good enough to win a playoff series or two as is. There likely isn’t a piece the Thunder could add to make it a title favorite without sacrificing the financial flexibility it needs to keep this young core intact.
And let’s just lose our minds for a second and say the Thunder make it all the way to the West finals where it falls to the Nuggets. Heck, even crazier, let’s say OKC loses to Boston in the NBA Finals. Is anyone of rational mind really going to rue the Thunder for not being more aggressive at the trade deadline? Gosh, no. You, me and everyone from Presti to Rumble the Bison is going to marvel at how long the ride lasted. The first ride, by the way, of what could be many.
We in Oklahoma City know as well as anyone that NBA championship windows aren’t open for long, but the Thunder’s window was just installed. The caulk isn’t dry.
Looking back to last season, Denver was dominant in its postseason title run, but the 2022-23 Nuggets had a 3.3 net rating in the regular season. Boston had a league-best 6.7 net rating. Cleveland, a cautionary tale for OKC, was second in net rating at 5.6.
The upstart Cavaliers went 51-31 last season but they were manhandled by the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. OKC (SGA) has a brighter star than Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell) and a better young big man (Chet Holmgren > Evan Mobley), but the Cavs, despite being great in the regular season, failed their first postseason test.
We talk about teams needing playoff scars. The Thunder don’t have a playoff scratch.
A play-in scrap is the closest this Thunder team has gotten to the postseason. Gilgeous-Alexander, despite being one of the top-five players on the planet, has yet to win a playoff series. And he’s the only Thunder player to have played in multiple playoff series: one in his rookie season with the Clippers, and another in his first season with the Thunder.
So maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves, despite the statistical evidence arguing otherwise. We can only wait and see what awaits this Thunder team.
After all, as a wise 21-year-old rookie reminded us, it’s barely January.