Dolphins (11-6) at Chiefs (11-6)
Saturday, 8 ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: Peacock
Spread (BetMGM):
Chiefs by 3.5
Dolphins’ keys to victory: Miami needs to lean on its top offensive weapons, namely WR Tyreek Hill and RB De’Von Achane. QB Tua Tagovailoa should look to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers consistently against Kansas City’s stout defense. The injuries of WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert are major factors here. If Tagovailoa has the full complement of skill players to get the ball to, the Dolphins should be able to outpace the Chiefs.
Chiefs’ keys to victory: This won’t be an easy matchup for Kansas City, but the Chiefs can help themselves by establishing a run game with RB Isiah Pacheco early and leaning on play-action passes later in the game to free up receivers deep downfield. QB Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been effective on deep passes this season but is sure to bring an extra edge to his effort in this game after resting in Week 18. He needs WRs Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and Rashee Rice to help. Drops have been an issue for this unit all season.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs DB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Dolphins’ Hill. The ex-teammates battled earlier in the season when Kansas City faced Miami in Frankfurt, Germany, and Sneed seemed to have the upper hand. Hill didn’t score a touchdown in the Week 9 matchup but may be able to get one on the over-performing defensive back.
Who wins? The Chiefs haven’t looked like Super Bowl contenders this season. Miami has flaws, but the Dolphins’ aren’t as glaring as Kansas City’s wild inconsistency.
Dolphins, 26-19