Steelers (10-7) at Bills (11-6)
Sunday, 1 ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York TV: CBS/Paramount+
Spread (BetMGM):
Bills by 9.5
Steelers’ keys to victory: Pittsburgh slid into the AFC postseason late thanks to a three-game winning streak. To get past the Bills, it cannot play like a team that barely made it to the playoffs. The Steelers have to play confidently. The Bills are fresh off winning their fourth straight AFC East title in a comeback win at Miami in Week 18. But there are plenty of examples of Buffalo playing down to opponents. A hot start by the Steelers, potentially by taking deep shots with QB Mason Rudolph, could put the Bills on the ropes and keep them there.
Bills’ keys to victory: The Bills have to bottle the swagger they carried in Miami and bring it to the postseason. The Bills ripped off five straight wins to win the AFC East. But Buffalo hasn’t played perfectly throughout that streak. The Bills have to make sure their offense stays two-dimensional. QB Josh Allen surpassed 350 yards passing against the Dolphins, but he had three turnovers, including two interceptions in the first quarter, and the ground game with RB James Cook was lacking. If Buffalo gets both rolling, the AFC is in trouble.
Matchup to watch: Steelers DE Alex Highsmith vs. Bills OL Dion Dawkins. The Steelers could very well be without OLB T.J. Watt, who sprained his MCL in Week 18. That’s huge news for the Bills as Watt has burned them many times in the past. Highsmith is still a difficult pass rusher.
Who wins? The Bills’ passing attack got going in Miami. In front of the home crowd, Buffalo could be even more deadly.
Bills, 28-17