Chiefs (12-6) at Bills (12-6)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EDT, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS
Spread (BetMGM):
Bills by 2.5
Bills’ keys to victory: Buffalo has everything to lose in this game and needs to prove that a Week 14 win over Kansas City wasn’t a fluke. Bills QB Josh Allen needs to get WR Stefon Diggs and TE Dawson Knox in rhythm early against the Chiefs’ stout secondary, balancing touches with RB James Cook to keep Kansas City’s line off balance. Excellent play from Buffalo’s front four can keep Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes under pressure and DL Ed Oliver could make a huge statement by bringing the reigning MVP to the turf in this game. If the Bills can put together a complete performance, they should be able to handle business.
Chiefs’ keys to victory: The Chiefs will need to emulate the toughness they showed in a victory against the Dolphins last weekend. This game will come down to Mahomes’ ability to get the ball to TE Travis Kelce and his line’s effectiveness in creating holes for RB Isiah Pacheco. On defense, Kansas City needs to lean on the excellent play of its stingy secondary to keep Allen from dominating the game through the air.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs DB L’Jarius Sneed vs. Bills’ Diggs. Sneed has put the clamps on opponents’ top receivers all season and held Dolphins deep threat Tyreek Hill to minimal yardage.
Who wins? Buffalo beat Kansas City earlier in the season and has the benefit of home-field advantage. However, the Chiefs will have two extra days of rest and confidence after defeating Miami in a blowout. This could be one of the best games of the AFC playoffs.
Bills, 29-27