Ride the Texans, Bills vs. spread

Top wagering picks for NFL divisional round weekend based on lines from BetMGM:

Chiefs at Bills

This matchup will be Patrick Mahomes’ first true road playoff game. Buffalo has won three of the last four games between the two organizations, and the Bills won each of the games by at least three points. Buffalo has also been surging while the Chiefs have been reeling for much of the last two months. Kansas City lost three of its last six games to close out the regular season, scoring 20 or fewer in four of them.

Buffalo is 8-9-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, but it has covered in four of its last seven games and is 4-2-1 ATS in that span (playoffs included). Buffalo has covered two of its last three on the road. Expect it to come out and play well at home. Back BILLS (-2.5).

Packers at 49ers

The Packers went off on the Cowboys on the road to open their postseason play, but that was their first time clearing 40 points this season. Green Bay allowed 10 or fewer points in its last two games of the season and allowed 20 or fewer in eight games. The Packers have playmakers on the defensive end. The 49ers have a strong defense and should see that at the forefront of this game.

They allowed fewer than 20 points in six of their last nine games. San Francisco sits eighth in the league in opponents’ yards per game. With Green Bay ending the season ninth in sack percentage, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be able to stall some drives by attacking 49ers QB Brock Purdy. But the Under should also be a strong public fade. Expect both defenses to be strong. Take the UNDER (50.5).

Texans at Ravens

The Ravens are the better team here and will be at home, but this spread is just too much. Houston has covered the spread in four of its last five games, including a 4514 win in the wild-card round and also a 23-19 road win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 to clinch the division.

Both of those games had a playoff-like environment where rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud played at an extremely high level. While the Ravens have covered well this season, they are just 1-3 ATS with a spread of seven or greater.

The Houston defense also has Will Anderson, who has one of the highest win rates in the NFL and should be able to get to Lamar Jackson, or at least contain the star quarterback. Houston might not be able to pull it out but expect it to cover. Back

(+9.5).

TROY TAORMINA/USA TODAY SPORTS Will Anderson Jr. could make the difference in whether the Texans cover at Baltimore.