Lions (14-5) at 49ers (13-5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California TV: Fox
Spread (BetMGM):
49ers by 7
Lions’ keys to victory: There’s no bigger key for the Detroit offense than running the football. RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should both have a ton of success against a 49ers run defense that got exposed badly in the divisional round. Getting going on the ground also takes pressure off QB Jared Goff, who has struggled on the road, and in outdoor games in particular. On defense, the Lions should sell out to stop the run. Forcing the 49ers to throw allows DE Aidan Hutchinson and DT Alim McNeill to go to work in the pass rush. S Brian Branch could also be a factor with either a takeaway or well-timed blitzes.
49ers’ keys to victory: Their success comes when RB Christian McCaffrey is getting touches and getting defenses overcommitting to the run. If the play-action game sets up layup throws to TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk, then perhaps we see a more effective version of the 49ers offense than we saw in the divisional round. Their defense also needs to stiffen up against the run. DLs Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave have to be stout, but LBs Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw need to be sound in the run game as well.
Matchup to watch: Lions’ Gibbs vs. 49ers’ Greenlaw. Greenlaw and Gibbs should meet in the open field. If Greenlaw gets the dual-threat RB on the ground, it bodes well for San Francisco.
Who wins? Detroit may not be as talented everywhere else, but it has the advantage on both sides of the line, which should allow the Lions to grind out a win.
Lions, 24-20