Lesson of Iowa, N.H.: It’s ugly early
The GOP’S internal battles will look like patty-cakes when the general election arrives
Bob: What have we learned from the GOP battles in Iowa and New Hampshire? That Mitt Romney likely will be the nominee of a party with a base that doesn’t like or trust him; that the few alternatives still in the race are unelectable in a general election; and that the Republican Party has moved far to the right because of Tea Partiers who are warring with the GOP establishment. Cal: Are you done? Bob: No. And the winner after the first two weeks of the GOP contest is without question President Obama.
Cal: You apparently need a history lesson. Liberal Democrats weren’t thrilled with Bill Clinton in 1992, but they grew to love him because he won twice. The so-called GOP establishment mostly lost elections before the party grew a right wing. Remember, the Republican establishment was against Ronald Reagan and for Gerald Ford. Reagan won twice and Ford lost when he ran.
Bob: Believe me, I know that Reagan won twice. I helped run Mondale’s campaign in 1984, remember?
Cal: Sorry to bring back bad memories. And then don’t forget that George H.W. Bush was an establishment man, and he lost to Clinton. Bob Dole and John Mccain were establishment men who lost to Clinton and Obama respectively.
Bob: So you’re arguing that Romney will lose to Obama, right?
Cal: Nice try. I’m simply defending the Tea Party for keeping the Republican Party honest, with hopes of returning America to a sound economy while being faithful to the Constitution. They are the new GOP establishment, but . . .
Bob: I have to interrupt you. As much as it would help the Democrats if this were this case, the Tea Party is not the GOP establishment. It is a minority movement with very loud vocal chords. That’s about it.
Cal: They have clear principles, which is more than I can say about many in Washington.
Bob: I’ll just say that Romney’s best hope is to wrap up the nomination by month’s end so that he can begin to repair the damage done to him by his fellow Republicans. Newt Gingrich is unleashing the hounds in South Carolina. Romney will also need to move to the center, where elections
Today: When elections go negative.
are won. But can he? If he moderates his message, he’ll merely confirm doubts in the GOP base that Romney is a CINO — Conservative In Name Only.
Cal: In New Hampshire and Iowa, a majority of voters indicated a preference for someone other than Romney. He still has some persuading to do. He’d help his cause if he were to stop defending the Massachusetts health care plan that he helped engineer. He has switched positions on abortion and same-sex rights, but he still clings to “Romneycare.” Romney should say, “I made a mistake, but having test-marketed government health care in Massachusetts and found it wanting, I can say it would be bad for the country.”
Bob: The only thing worse politically than sticking with his health care record would be abandoning it. Can you really imagine him now flip-flopping on Romneycare? He’d never recover.
Cal: Even so, it’s a tough pill for some conservatives to swallow, though not nearly as tough as swallowing four more years of President Obama! What troubles many conservatives now is that the other Republican candidates are starting to sound like Democrats. In order to attack Romney, they bash capitalism. Only Ron Paul has stayed above the fray. These guys are giving Democrats sound bites for their fall political ads.
Bob: That’s why I said Obama is the big winner. But the president will need to undercut Romney, who convincingly argues that he’s job-creating businessman, not a Washington politician out of touch with the real economy. Romney’s GOP opponents, by attacking his private sector experience, are doing Obama’s work for him. Romney can hope, however, that the hatred of Obama is so strong among the GOP base that it will stay energized and turn out in massive numbers, despite ambivalence about their candidate.
Cal: It isn’t hatred. I don’t hate the president. It is a feeling that Obama promised more than he could deliver and hasn’t delivered even a small portion of what he promised. Four years ago, he said, “The country is ready for a leader who will bring us together.” We still are. He promised to fix health care, yet the cost of employer-provided insurance premiums for families spiked 9% in 2011, triple what it was the year before. And don’t get me started on the economy. Bob: And Obama’s responsible for all of this? Cal: I’m not done. He promised to make college “affordable.” Instead, costs have risen to an alltime high. He promised energy independence yet now admits that U.S. energy policy is still “a hodgepodge.” Oh, and the politics he is playing with the Keystone Pipeline. Shall I go on? The GOP nominee will have no shortage of ammunition.
Bob: Romney has some important assets. He has run before and experienced firsthand the pressures associated with seeking the world’s most powerful job; he has enough personal wealth to match Obama’s impressive fundraising operation; His personal life is by all accounts scandal-free. All impressive. But there is still a painful lack of passion that will sink him. In times like these, passion trumps résumé every time.
Cal: Passion and emotion stuck us with Obama. I don’t think America will make that mistake again. I think voters are ready for another conservative president, even a boring one. They’re ready for some serious, experienced leadership — and Romney has that.
Bob: One thing we can agree on is that the negativity that went on steroids in Iowa and New Hampshire and is about to get much worse. Gingrich calling Romney a “liar” will be child’s play compared with what we’ll see in the general election. The “super PAC” assaults will bludgeon Obama and the GOP nominee. Republicans have already vilified the president in terms rarely heard in even the toughest races of the past 50 years.
Cal: Oh nonsense. That type of hyperbole will not go unchallenged in this column. The Obama White House and The New York Times can churn out this propaganda, but not here, Bob.
Bob: Don’t get me wrong. The Obama campaign has already signaled its intention to use massive resources in a coordinated assault on the Republican nominee. Indeed, the Democratic National Committee is already on the case in going after Romney. All I’m saying is that with unlimited money after the Citizens United Supreme Court decision, and with so many Americans unhappy with the leadership of both parties — and, thus, receptive to new messages — it’s about to get very ugly, very quickly.
Cal: Yes, Newt Gingrich knows about the effects of negative campaigning.
Bob: Boo-hoo. The high-minded Newt lecturing others about the audacity of going negative. Now that’s rich.
Cal: The fact is, negative ads work, and that’s why candidates will continue to use them.
Bob: A serious discussion about potential solutions won’t happen in a negative environment. The anger and negativity of the American people is, perhaps, reflected in the politics of the day. Or vice versa.
Cal: People have short attention spans, and the bitter rivalries within the GOP will begin to fade as the nominee is nailed down. And that’ll be soon. Then conservatives should start focusing on U.S. Senate races. If Romney wins in November, having a conservative Republican Senate and House will help him be the bold president we need to clean up after Obama.
Bob: Hope springs eternal with you, my friend. But I must disappoint you: There will not be a Republican Senate or president in 2013. What there will be is much bitterness left over from a campaign that will only reinforce the polarization in Washington.