Midmajors could cause some major upheaval
A year after Virginia Commonwealth went from the NCAA men’s basketball tournament at-large playin game to the Final Four, it’s hard to be suspect of any team hovering around tournament contention.
But when some projections of the NCAA tournament field now include three teams from the Pac-12 Conference, Saint Joseph’s (19-11) and Northwestern (17-11), it’s hard not to be suspect of any team not contending for a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Which brings us to this week’s start of conference tournament play and some mid- and low-major teams that need to be rooted for by the Northwesterns of the world and against by any major-conference team looking at a single-digit seed.
If Murray State doesn’t win the Ohio Valley tournament, that’s going be one fewer at-large spot for a major-conference team. If Loyola Marymount, which has won at Saint Mary’s and Brigham Young, takes the West Coast title, the WCC likely will get four bids (Gonzaga is in good shape, even though Saint Mary’s ended its run of 11 consecutive regular-season conference titles).
Wichita State and Creighton separated themselves from the rest of the Missouri Valley in the regularseason standings, but the conference tournament’s third seed, Evansville, has a win and an overtime loss against Creighton and losses by one and 12 against Wichita State. If Drexel and VCU reach the Colonial tournament final, they’ll have excellent at-large prospects.
At the other end of the spectrum are a set of teams that almost surely will not make the NCAA tournament without winning their conference tournaments but could be trendy upset picks if they do make it. Iona (Metro Atlantic) has the nation’s assist leader, Scott Machado; Arizona transfer Lamont “Momo” Jones; and 6-7, 215-pound forward Mike Glover, who averages 18 points and nine rebounds a game.
Davidson (Southern) has beaten Kansas in Kansas City, Mo. The Wildcats have three regulars shooting at least 39% from three-point range, and, as a team, they’re making 77% of their free throws. Oral Roberts (Summit) has lost once since Dec. 15, and to win the conference tournament in Sioux Falls, S.D., it might have to beat second-seeded South Dakota State.
Any of the top five seeds in the Horizon tournament — in order, Valparaiso, Cleveland State, Detroit, Milwaukee and Butler — could be a problem in the NCAA tournament, but any could get dumped after a regular season in which seven teams finished with at least 10 league wins.