Avoid small sample sizes when evaluating players
It is common knowledge among fantasy owners that we should not put much credence in spring training statistics.
Both batters and pitchers face a mixture of minor league and major league talent. Players spend March trying new approaches and working off winter rust. It is not a true measure of the caliber of competition players will face once the real games start.
But March numbers often are tough to resist for fantasy players looking for an edge as they prepare for draft day.
To gauge drafting tendencies, Baseballhq.com took a look at the Average Draft Position rankings (ADP) at Mockdraftcentral.com on Feb. 23 and compared them with the ADPS on opening day.
Some of the results were obvious. With his suspension overturned, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun’s ADP spiked from 23rd to No. 2. Relief pitchers who won closer roles were the biggest gainers, led by Grant Balfour of the Oakland Athletics. The 65 spots he jumped — from 289th to 224th — topped all players.
But other ADP movers are tougher to justify.
The New York Mets’ Johan Santana was a consistently dominating pitcher who spent most of the last two seasons on the disabled list. He tossed 18z spring innings with a 3.44 ERA, a less-than-dominant 13 strikeouts and seven walks. Still, it was enough to boost him 40 spots in the rankings, from 250th to 210th.
Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Kendrys Morales also missed most of the last two years, and his previous track record of success was one solid season, in 2009. But his spring performance had an impact. He hit .367 in 30 at-bats with two home runs and 10 strikeouts. He rose 33 spots in the rankings, from 222nd to 189th.
Adam Dunn’s collapse in his first season with the Chicago White Sox was unprecedented, but was it indicative of the direction his career is heading? After batting .263 with six home runs in March, drafters drew their conclusion. His ADP rose 24 spots to 232nd.
Some fantasy analysts are optimistic about Edinson Volquez and his move to pitcher-friendly Petco Park as a member of the San Diego Padres. But his spring performance, in which he walked 11 batters in 20 innings, tempered expectations. His ADP dropped 46 spots to 288th.
When the Brewers let Prince Fielder go, the expectation was that Mat Gamel would be given the first shot at the vacated firstbase position. Gamel batted .238 in March — though he did hit six home runs — and his ADP dropped 40 slots to 270th.
Dexter Fowler stirred debate as a player with breakout potential atop the Colorado Rockies lineup. But after he batted .149 in 67 spring at-bats, drafters started shying away. His ADP dropped 30 spots to 267th.
It is questionable whether anything has changed with these players. The small March samples are hardly sufficient to draw statistically valid conclusions.
And for players who appear healthy after recovering from an injury, the six-month grind of the regular season could take its toll after long layoffs.
But drafters have been willing to take leaps of faith. The regular season will reveal the truth.