Ellsbury injury offers owners fantasy lesson

It looks as if Boston Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury might be hurting fantasy owners’ title hopes again.

Ellsbury has been an impact player consistently among the most valuable in the game — when he’s healthy.

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In his first full season in 2008, he stole 50 bases and generated $30 in Rotisserie value. The following year, he swiped 70 bases and upped his value to $39. Coming into 2010, he consistently was being drafted in the first round and going for more than $30 in auctions.

But an early-season collision with then-teammate Adrian Beltre put Ellsbury on the disabled list. Within a week of his May return, he went back on the DL after getting reinjured diving for a ball. Days after returning in August, a collision with Texas Rangers pitcher Tommy Hunter landed Ellsbury on the DL for a third time.

That one ended his season. For fantasy leaguers, it left a big hole in their rosters.

Returning healthy in 2011, Ellsbury broke out with 32 home runs, 39 steals and a .321 batting average. That yielded a career-high $44 value.

The monster season lifted expectations for 2012. The Average Draft Position report from Mockdraftcentral.com ranked him as the No. 7 most soughtafter player. Auction values in the national experts leagues — LABR and Tout Wars — topped out at $37.

Now, a few weeks into the season, Ellsbury is hurt again, and again it’s due to an on-field collision. He’s expected to be out for six to eight weeks, but there’s a chance he could miss the rest of the season.

Savvy drafters who did their homework in spring training, however, might have spared themselves the agony.

Ellsbury’s high draft value was at least somewhat driven by “recency bias.” This is when we place a greater value on more recent events than on past ones. With his 2011 statistics drawing inflated attention, Ellsbury was over-drafted in many leagues.

But the signs were there that he should not have been a topdrafted player in the first place.

First, regression to the mean should have been a key factor in downgrading him. Never a power hitter, the odds were remote he’d repeat his homer total. Many assumed he’d make up any home run shortfall with a rebound in stolen bases, but there was no support for that either.

Over the last eight years, fantasy owners have correctly projected the game’s top 15 players at a meager 38% rate. That means we should expect about nine of the typical 15 first-round picks to not produce as a top 15 player. In assessing which nine might hold the greatest risk to fall short, Ellsbury had to be near the top of the list.

Finally, his string of 2010 injuries profiled him as an aggressive player who might be fragile. Admittedly, that was not a prime consideration last month, but we now have a pattern.

Small consolation to his current owners, but those who played it more risk averse do not have to deal with replacing this impact player.