U.S. global role may change
‘Reckoning’ looks at impact of being less than superpower
Are America’s days as a superpower numbered?
With sustained high unemployment, mounting national debt and legislative gridlock in Washington, the world’s most powerful nation is not in the midst of its finest hour.
As China and other emerging powers rise on the international stage, and uprisings in the Arab world continue to test the limits of U.S foreign policy, the age of American global dominance may be ending.
But what will diminished U.S. influence mean for America and its allies? According to author Michael Moran, much depends on whether Washington can get its house in order.
In The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy, and the Future of American Power, Moran offers a glimpse of a world in which the U.S. is no longer an “unrivaled economic and military giant” and presents advice to U.S. leaders to help navigate the transition to a more modest global role.
This shift, Moran says, will be smoothest if Americans learn to reject the long-held belief in exceptionalism — the idea, as he puts it, that the U.S. was “somehow divinely ordained to rule the world.”
If America and its allies continue to act like the U.S. is infallible — that its borrowing costs will forever be low and financial sector impervious to another collapse — the adjustment for both will be direr.
As Moran writes, the U.S. government must “either get its fiscal and foreign policy priorities in order or it will begin a much more rapid descent than anyone in the mainstream currently believes, prodded onward by credit downgrades, financial turmoil and, quite possibly, an emboldened foreign rival.”
Much of The Reckoning deals with the United States’ relationship with emerging global powers, including China, Brazil, India and Turkey, as well as the effect of its diminished influence in global hotspots such as the Middle East.
Though his analysis is generally not prescriptive, a common theme is the need for the U.S. to show “tough love” among its allies and call on nations that have long relied on the U.S. for defense to shoulder more of their own security burdens.
For American voters, Moran’s chapters on domestic political economy are more pertinent.
Though he agrees with the American right in the need to reduce long-run deficits, Moran’s overall narrative suggests that the path forward will be far more painful if guided by a Republican administration.
With unemployment high and economic growth anemic, he argues, the economy desperately needs a short-term surge in investment — in effect, another stimulus — to get back on track.
Only when consumer demand is restored, coupled with policies to reverse the nation’s widening income gap, can long-term fiscal austerity measures be effective. Though an engaging, if chilling read, The Reckoning would be more powerful if its narrative were more focused.
At just 256 pages, with broad geopolitical sweep, it lacks room to give more than a cursory overview of the international and domestic issues it addresses.
Moreover, Moran’s thesis would be strengthened by adding more historical context.
In taking the United States’ waning geopolitical influence as a given, he fails to acknowledge the presence of mainstream thinkers who don’t believe its superpower era is ending.