5 trends that will shape control of the House
EXPERTS EXPECT CHAMBER TO STAY IN GOP HANDS
Control of the White House and the U.S. Senate is up for grabs on Election Day, but as certain as anything is in politics, it’s safe to bet that Republicans will continue to control the House in the next Congress — and maybe well beyond.
Republicans control the House, and although Democrats have many good prospects to chip away at their majority, the nation’s top election forecasters are decisively pessimistic about Democrats’ chances of gaining the 25 seats they need to take control of the chamber.
The Cook Political Report projects a zero- to 10-seat range for Democratic gains. The Rothenberg Political Report projects a four- to 10-seat gain, and the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato projects a seven-seat Democratic gain.
On the heels of three consecutive wave election cycles in 2006, 2008 and 2010 — when a net of at least 20 House seats changed partisan hands — 2012 appears to be shaping up to be more of a status quo year. Shy of a national wave, seat changes in the House of Representatives historically stay in the single digits.
That’s not to say this year’s House races are ho-hum events: About 70 of the 435 seats are in play and Democratic leaders such as Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., insist the party has a shot to win control.
Here’s what to watch for on Election Day and beyond:
1 It’s not about the House
Trying to assess where House races rank in the 2012 elections can be summed up by a take on the classic self-help line: It’s not about them. The House has not changed majority control in a presidential election year since 1952. The
past three turnovers — in 1994 for Republicans, 2006 for Democrats and 2010 back to Republicans — all occurred in midterm election years.
Presidential politics dominate, and voters get motivated more by the top of the ticket. Stu Rothenberg, a veteran elections analyst, reasons that large swings in House seats occur in midterm elections because that’s where voters can take out their frustration — or show their support — for the president.
In presidential election years, voters are more likely to support the House incumbent on the ballot.
That should be reassuring for Republicans, since they are defending 25 highly competitive seats compared with 16 held by Democrats.
2 The Republican edge
A frustrating reality for congressional Democrats is that Republicans’ grip on control remains strong despite the 112th Congress’ record as one of the most partisan and least productive in the post-World War II era.
Many factors play in their favor, but none has played as big a role as the 2012 redistricting process. Every 10 years, Congress has to redraw congressional districts based on population changes documented in the U.S. Census to assure districts have roughly the same number of constituents.
From the outset, Republicans had a strategy to shore up support for members who represented competitive swing seats. They were aided by the GOP takeover of many state legislatures in 2010, which drew the lines in states that include Ohio and North Carolina.
For the most part, it was a success. According to The Cook Political Re
port, which calculates the competitiveness of each district, about a dozen Republican incumbents were drawn into districts that had been competitive in 2010, but now they face token opposition.
For example, in 2010, Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa., rode the Tea Party wave and ousted a veteran Democratic incumbent in a suburban area district that voted 57% for President Obama in 2008. The district was redrawn into a new one that had voted 47% for Obama — a swing that has knocked Barletta off Democrats’ target list.
Cook calculates that 99 seats — less than one-quarter of the House — are competitive “swing ” seats post-redistricting. That is down from 164 swing seats, nearly 40% of the House, in 1998.
The redistricting leaves Republicans with 190 safe seats vs. 146 for Democrats, according to Cook. That means Democrats must win 73% of the swing seats to get to 218 and majority control.
Based on that math, Democrats will continue to face a high hurdle for winning control of the House until the next redrawing of congressional lines in time for the 2022 races.
3 The Democrats’ narrow path
Pelosi and Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., who runs the Democrats’ campaign operation, have brushed off pessimistic outlooks and maintain that there is a path for a takeover. “We will win,” Pelosi predicted late last month. “Our motto is: Don’t agonize, organize.”
Here’s how Democrats see it: There are 59 districts held by a Republican that Obama carried in 2008, and of those, eight voted for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004, meaning they provide some of the best opportunities for pickups.
Israel acknowledged that Democrats will have to run the table in the Obama-Kerry districts. All eight Republican incumbents in those districts are in jeopardy, according to Cook. They include Rep. Bobby Schilling ’s suburban Chicago seat, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle’s Upstate New York seat, and Rep. Chip Cravaack’s northeastern Minnesota district.
In the remaining competitive GOPheld Obama districts, Democrats will have to win about half for a shot at the majority. Yet, according to Cook, Democrats aren’t even targeting 26 of 50 GOP-held seats carried by Obama.
What’s more, congressional election experts predict Democrats will lose some seats of their own, including two in North Carolina because of redistricting and two others because of retirements. “When Republicans redrew North Carolina’s congressional districts, it was clear that (Democrats Rep. Larry) Kissell and Rep. Heath Shuler were gone,” Rothenberg said. Democrats are not contesting the races for retiring Reps. Mike Ross of Arkansas and Dan Boren of Oklahoma.
To make up for those losses, Democrats would need to pick up what Israel has called “outlier” districts, where Republicans have special vulnerabilities.
For instance, Democrats are targeting scandal-plagued Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla., because he is under federal and state investigation for illegal campaign schemes.
Democrats have found encouragement in their fundraising: They have outraised their GOP counterparts $142.4 million to $128.3 million since January 2011 and achieved a record 1 million donors to the campaign operation, funded mostly by small donors. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is also running 163 field offices in 26 states, aiming to boost Democratic turnout on Election Day.
4 The voting bloc of tomorrow
The Hispanic vote is a rising force in American politics, and 2012 will be a test of the potency and partisan leaning of what is becoming a consequential voting bloc.
According to the Pew Hispanic Center, a non-partisan research group, a record 23.7 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in 2012, up 4 million, or 22%, since 2008. Hispanics are 11% of all eligible voters in the USA, but they historically lag in turnout compared with white and black voters. In 2008, 50% of eligible Hispanic voters cast ballots, compared with 65% of eligible black voters and 66% of whites.
This year, Obama has maintained a big edge over Romney among Hispanics nationally. The latest Pew poll, released Oct. 11, gave Obama a 3-to-1 advantage among Hispanics, which is good news for the president in battlegrounds such as Colorado and Nevada.
The Hispanic vote is also a factor in U.S. House races in states such as California, where the Democratic Party hopes to pick up as many as four seats, and Arizona, a red state that it sees trending Democratic because of the growth of Hispanic voters.
For many pollsters and political strategists, 2012 is a test run for His- panic turnout and how to accurately poll Hispanic voters. “There’s more Hispanic polling occurring now than ever before,” said Mark Lopez, the associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center.
Democrats have made a more concerted effort to recruit Hispanic candidates. Many are competitive for GOP-held seats, including two in California. Both districts have growing Hispanic populations, which could help physician Raul Ruiz, who is challenging Mary Bono Mack, and former astronaut Jose Hernandez, who is trying to oust Jeff Denham.
The races are also a test of whether Hispanic candidates can win in districts where Hispanics are not a majority. Ruiz and Hernandez will need non-Hispanic support since Hispanic voters in those districts are about 35% or less of the electorate.
5 The power balance
Some outcomes of Election Day are already certain. First, the 113th Congress will have the highest turnover since 1992. A mix of redistricting and retirements has left 62 House seats with no incumbent running, and a dozen races pitting two incumbents against each other assures an additional 12 won’t be returning. As many as 80 new members could join the U.S. House next year, says David Wasserman, of the Cook Report.
The makeup of the two parties will be starker. Wasserman projects that the House Democratic Caucus in 2013 will be the first congressional party bloc in U.S. history to have a majority of women and minorities with white males 46% to 48% of the caucus.
Republicans, by contrast, continue to be dominated by white men — roughly 86%. That has prompted party leaders such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush to call for more diverse candidates, particularly Hispanics, in future elections.
The geographic balance in the House also is changing. Democrats in the South, particularly whites, have been all but eliminated, as the party has ceded that conservative bastion and set its eyes on growth in western states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona.
Republicans, after being washed out of the six New England states in 2006 and 2008, are trying to make a comeback there. They have two bright opportunities in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, where Democratic incumbents have been dragged down by ethical problems. New Hampshire’s two Republican incumbents, Reps. Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta, are also deadlocked in competitive races in a state Republicans hope to hold, to prove that their wave victory in 2010 was not just an anomaly but a sign of Northeast renewal.
Members who rode the Tea Party wave into the House in 2010 are for the most part here to stay in 2012. The majority of vulnerable Republicans are freshmen, but out of an 87-member class, at least 53 will return for a second term, Wasserman predicts. “There just isn't much overlap between the ranks of the Tea Party and the ranks of the vulnerable,” he said.