This Thanksgiving, expect crowded skies

Expect 90% full Thanksgiving flights

Planes likely to be 90% full; ticket prices also up.

Planes will be close to full this Thanksgiving and with more passengers this holiday season than last.

Ticket prices will be higher than last year, though not when inflation is taken into account for the past decade.

And like every year, the least-busy day to fly during the holiday period is Thanksgiving Day.

That’s the forecast from the nation’s airline industry, which Wednesday estimated 23.7 million passengers will fly over the 12 days from Friday, Nov. 16, through Tuesday, Nov. 27. That’s up 150,000 passengers from last year’s holiday period.

The busiest day in the air is projected to be the Sunday after Thanksgiving, Nov. 25. John Heimlich, chief economist at industry group Airlines for America, estimates 2.4 million people will fly that day.

Other heavy travel days: the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, Nov. 21, and the Monday after, Nov. 26. Some 2.3 million will fly both days.

In contrast, Heimlich says, 1.3 million passengers will fly on Thanksgiving.

Though up from last year, the number of people expected to take flights is down from the 26.2 million who flew during the 12 days around Thanksgiving in 2006 and 2007. That was before recessionary times and a persistent rise in jet fuel prices, the industry group says. Jet fuel remains a major expense for airlines, at $3.08 per gallon.

“We are poised once again to see all-time high jet-fuel prices for this year,” Heimlich says.

Ticket prices are up. The average domestic fare of $385 so far this year is 4% higher than last, according to the Transportation Department. But Heimlich says that, accounting for inflation, fares are down 16% compared with 2000.

Thanksgiving planes are expected to approach 90% full, Heimlich says. That’s because the airlines have been reducing the number of seats they make available to more closely match demand.

“We are expecting planes to be full as more travelers head to the sky and airlines more closely match their capacity to demand, to offset what are expected to be record fuel prices,” says Jean Medina, spokeswoman for Airlines for America.

While the Thanksgiving period is traditionally busy, summer weekends when school is out are often the heaviest traveled.

The industry group says the Thanksgiving holiday last year rivaled busy weekends in June when school was out and families took vacations.