This year’s voter turnout may fall short of historic ’08
Some say everyone who showed up should be included in total count
From the beginning, President Obama’s re-election strategy relied on replicating the historically high voter turnout from 2008.
He didn’t quite do that — but it was close enough.
Preliminary data suggest that turnout this year may reach 132 million, for a turnout of about 60%, said Michael McDonald, a voting expert at George Mason University. That would fall just short of the 135 million who voted in 2012.
“It doesn’t look like we had a 2008-level turnout. I’m certain about that. There was some waning of interest in voting,” he said. “I don’t see this election as some kind of wholesale collapse of turnout, either.”
Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, was more pessimistic.
“This was a major plunge in turnout nationally,” said Gans. He estimated the turnout to be somewhat lower, 57.5%.
Why all the varied estimates, even more than 24 hours after polls have closed?
Millions of ballots have yet to be counted. Absentee ballots are still in the mail. Provisional ballots — from voters whose eligibility could not be confirmed on Election Day — still need to be checked. And emergency voting methods because of Superstorm Sandy in the Northeast have made for a slow count.
With 99% of precincts reporting, the Associated Press’ figures showed about 119.5 million people voted for Obama. At this point in 2004, 2 million more ballots had already been counted.
“We don’t really have the full picture yet, because there’s still votes to be counted,” said Matthew McClellan, spokesman for the Ohio Secretary of State. “When it’s all said and done, it will be very close to where we were in 2008.”
Even with a lower number, he said, the turnout percentage could go up. That’s because there are fewer registered voters in Ohio as a result of population changes and a cleanup of the voter rolls.
In fact, for measuring voter participation, turnout numbers may be the wrong measurement.
Ned Foley, a professor at Ohio State University’s election law center, said turnout numbers should include voters who tried to vote — even if their ballots didn’t count. “If what turnout is trying to measure is interest in participation ... philosophically, you could make the argument that those people should be counted because they did show up,” he said.
Ohio, for example, had 205,672 provisional votes that cannot be counted for another 10 days, after election officials determine their eligibility.
Four years ago, 20% of those ballots were discarded. That means almost 1% of people who attempted to vote aren’t showing up in the official turnout tally.
In his victory speech in Chicago early Wednesday, Obama suggested that making voting easier — and increasing turnout — will be part of his agenda even though he has run his last campaign.
“I want to thank every American who participated in this election, whether you voted for the very first time or waited in line for a very long time,” Obama said.
“By the way, we have to fix that.”