INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-3) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-7)
8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network, Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
Covers. com line: Colts by 3
Last meeting: Jacksonville rebounded from a 14-3 deficit to notch its only win of the season 22-17 at Indianapolis in Week 3 when QB Blaine Gabbert found WR Cecil Shorts for an 80-yard TD with 45 seconds remaining.
Streaking: Colts WR Reggie Wayne leads the NFL with 104.4 receiving yards a game. He has at least five catches in 10 consecutive games.
Lucky strikes: The Colts are beating the odds by winning despite being minus 10 in turnover margin with three takeaways. That adds to the immense weight on rookie QB Andrew Luck’s shoulders. Sizzling hot on third downs, Luck has covered up for an inconsistent rushing attack. But he has been far less effective on the road, completing 55.9% of his passes with two touchdowns and six interceptions.
The Jaguars’ pedestrian pass rush should allow Luck to dictate what looks he’ll see against three-receiver sets. Luck’s mobility demands discipline and patience from the secondary. When he breaks the pocket, Luck has good accuracy but also surprising speed. Even with TE Coby Fleener (shoulder) out, the Colts have proven solid depth behind Wayne. Dwayne Allen more than filled Fleener’s shoes, and young wideouts T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery had 100-yard games last weekend.
The Blaine game: Shorts, the second-year home-run threat, continues to make an impact. And Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon made major contributions in the same game for the first time in Week 9.
An intriguing one-on-one battle on the left side of the offensive line bears close scrutiny. LT Eugene Monroe is vastly underrated, but Colts ROLB Dwight Freeney has 10 career sacks against the Jaguars. It’s a poor run-blocking group up front, and RB Rashad Jennings is more of a serviceable, short-term stand-in than a solid starter in place of Maurice Jones-Drew. He’ll have to move the chains to keep Luck off the field.
Need to know: Luck has the highest winning percentage (.625) through Week 9 of rookies drafted with the top pick. ... The Jaguars have won the last three meetings.