GOP districts get less Hispanic
Might make immigration harder to sell
WASHINGTON Momentum to overhaul the nation’s immigration laws is fueled by the growing political influence of Hispanics in America, but in the House of Representatives, Republicans have less incentive to support the effort because their constituents have become whiter, more conservative and less diverse than the nation as a whole.
Congressional district lines were redrawn in 2012 in a once-a-decade process to reflect population shifts.
GOP-led redistricting efforts moved areas with high concentrations of mostly Democratic minority voters out of GOP dominant districts and into Democratic-heavy districts, thereby making both districts less competitive in a general election.
According to the non-partisan Cook Political Report, House Republicans now represent 6.6 million fewer minorities than in 2002 – the last time the lines were redrawn. The average GOP district is now 75% nonHispanic white, up 2 percentage points since 2002, while the average Democratic district is 51% non-Hispanic white, down 1 point.
“What’s amazing is Republicans were able to actually make their districts ... whiter in the 2012 round of redistricting even though minorities were responsible for most of the growth of the U.S. population in the past 10 years,” Cook’s David Wasserman said.
Republican leaders, responding to Mitt Romney taking only 27% of the Hispanic vote in 2012, are trying to rebrand the party with Hispanic voters. The Republican National Committee outlined a new plan to woo these voters and on Tuesday made Jennifer Korn, former director of the conservative Hispanic Leadership Network, the RNC’s new director of Hispanic engagement.
Those efforts may not matter to House members whose districts have become less Hispanic. The 2010 redistricting resulted in a political climate where incumbents are more vulnerable to primary challenges than general election battles, election analysts say, boosting the political pressure to appeal to base voters. And voters in the Republican base are skeptical of proposals to make immigration easier.
Mindful of those political realities, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., a member of a bipartisan group of lawmakers attempting to craft a House immigration bill, said there is ongo- ing outreach to appeal to and assuage skeptical House conservatives.
Diaz-Balart said the group is crafting a bill that includes provisions popular among Republican constituencies, such as enhanced border security and restricted access to government services for unauthorized immigrants who get legal status.
He said he is also appealing to his colleagues’ “sense of service.”
“There are some folks that for them, this is a tough issue in a primary. Right. I get that,” he said. “But the American people are demanding a fix to the broken immigration system. Knowing that, are you just going to sit back and do nothing because it might be a bit of a political risk? Then what are you doing here? What did you get elected for? This is why someone gets elected to Congress.”
The Senate Judiciary Committee approved a bill last week that would allow the nation’s 11 million unautho- rized immigrants to apply for U.S. citizenship, add billions of dollars for border security and overhaul the legal immigration system to bring in more foreign workers.
Conservative groups are already mobilizing around immigration issues — in particular opposing giving a legal pathway to residency here for the undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. — and the issue could become fodder for GOP primary challenges in House districts.
Republican districts have lost ideological as well as ethnic diversity. Fifteen years ago, Cook rated 148 congressional seats safe for Republicans, while today there are 186 safe Republican seats, meaning 80% of Republicans face all-but-no threat of a general election challenge.
Democratic districts have also become more liberal in the process, but Democrats hold a firm grip on fewer seats than Republicans, and the party has not faced the same threat of primary challenges that the GOP has weathered in recent elections.
A May 1 national survey by the Pew Research Center on immigration legislation making its way through the Democratic-controlled Senate highlighted the partisan divide: Republicans knowledgeable about the bill oppose it nearly 2-to-1, 52%-27%, while Democrats knowledgeable about the bill support it nearly 3-to-1, 60%-18%.
Conservative super PACs are forming to target Republicans on immigration.
“It must be defeated in its entirety, period,” said Lorie Medina, a Tea Party activist who chairs the Real Conservatives National Committee. The group has vowed to fund primary challengers to any Republican who supports a legislative overhaul similar to the Senate proposal, which the group considers an “amnesty” bill.
The group is organizing a series of events next month to test out voter canvassing technology and build grass-roots support, which it makes a point to note is happening “a full eight months before the first Republican primary ballots will be cast in March 2014.”