Patience pays off for Myers’ owners
The day has finally arrived for eager fantasy leaguers. The Tampa Bay Rays are promoting outfielder Wil Myers.
The 2012 USA TODAY Sports Minor League Player of the Year, Myers was the top-ranked fantasy prospect for 2013, according to the Minor League Baseball Analyst.
In March, most fantasy owners were hoping Myers would break camp with the Rays. Even though he started the season in the minors, the experts speculated on his potential in their drafts.
uIn the LABR-AL auction, he was purchased for $8. In the 15-team mixed league draft, he went in the 18th round, 264th overall.
uHe went for $6 in Tout WarsAL and 257th overall in the mixed league.
uMyers’ preseason Average Draft Position (ADP), according to Mock Draft Central, was 295. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, his ADP was 230. That 16th-round ranking was Myers’ highwater mark.
Recent big-name call-ups have conditioned us to expect immediate production. Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and, more recently, Yasiel Puig of the Los Angeles Dodgers have set a precedent.
Can Myers live up to that? His minor league numbers are certainly encouraging.
This year with Class AAA Durham (N.C.), Myers is batting .286 with 14 home runs in 252 at-bats. His contact rate is down slightly from last season, though, at 71.8%.
That contact rate might be the key to his short-term future. Harper, Trout and Puig were promoted with contact rates between 77% and 80%, closer to league average. Machado’s contact rate was 83%.
The percentage play on young players is to expect an adjustment period. However, we are getting to the point where we can no longer use that as an excuse for a player not having immediate success.
Myers is 22, but so is Puig. Trout is 21. Harper and Machado are 20.
Free agent bidding on Myers this weekend will be brisk. But what kind of production can we expect?
Assuming he is productive enough to stick, he should get between 300 and 350 at-bats. According to the projections at BaseballHQ.com, that would mean about 10-12 home runs and a batting average around .250. Those numbers yield a Rotisserie value of about $8. The experts seem to have hit their target fairly well.