To save Ukraine, show Putin the high cost of conquest
When President Vladimir Putin addresses Russia’s parliament today, he will almost certainly announce, just two weeks after a remarkably bloodless invasion and just two days after Sunday’s secession vote, that Crimea is rejoining Russia.
Most Russians and Crimeans, bursting with patriotic pride, will cheer, egged on by Putin’s propaganda machine, which had crushed dissenting voices. The mild sanctions imposed by the Obama administration and Europe, to protest Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, will be dismissed or ignored.
And then Putin is expected to talk about the issue that really matters: What comes next. Will he push quickly to conquer Russia-leaning parts of eastern Ukraine, where paramilitary groups already are pursuing the tactics of rebellion used in Crimea? Or will he use his Crimea triumph to signal a pause that might create a diplomatic opening?
Either way, it would be foolish to think that Putin — basking in record popularity and surrounded by hard-line advisers — will do anything other than press the objective he has pursued for years: restoring the historic subjugation of Ukraine to Russia’s will. But how he goes about it, and how the West responds, will likely decide whether the post-Cold War effort to link Russia with the West will continue, or will it be abandoned by both sides in favor of a new and costly era of confrontation.
So far, the Obama administration, with no military option, has responded appropriately: rallying allies, preparing an escalating series of economic sanctions and pressing Putin diplomatically. But threats need teeth to be credible, and Putin will relent only if he believes that his actions will have devastating consequences.
Despite Russia’s militaristic turn, there’s reason to think that he recognizes the danger.
Putin resorted to invasion only after a decade of other tactics failed and Ukraine’s elected proRussian government was deposed last month by pro-Western rebels. That does not justify his actions, but it does help explain them. It suggests that Putin knows conquest comes at a cost. Now Obama — and more critically Europe, which has deeper trade ties to Russia — must make clear how high the price of further aggression will be.
The immediate step, freezing assets of a few officials close to Putin, is a minor warning shot. The firepower can by multiplied many times by imposing embargoes, cutting Russia off from the international banking system or other measures — if Europe is willing to bear the cost.
An even more potent step would be aggressive energy development in Europe, which over time would deprive Russia of revenue from its primary export and reduce its leverage.
That approach won’t return Crimea to Ukraine. And the West needn’t draw Ukraine into alliance. It need only seek a solution that leaves Ukraine stable, independent and free to engage with both Russia and the West.
Whether Putin would agree to such an outcome after being rewarded politically and psychologically for his invasion is very much in doubt. Nevertheless, until he proves otherwise, that should be the goal.