In tournament, underdogs have their day
Obama “probably went off somebody else’s pick,” Oklahoma sophomore guard Buddy Hield said before Thursday’s game. “He probably didn’t watch us as much. We just want to prove everybody wrong.”
Harvard proved the president and many others right Thursday, knocking off Cincinnati 61-57. Hours later, North Dakota State did the same on the same court, despite Hield’s plans. The Bison earned their first NCAA tournament victory, beating Oklahoma 80-75 in overtime. In an earlier game in Buffalo, No. 11 seed Dayton upset No. 6 seed Ohio State.
High-profile upsets only fuel fans’ hopes to see more. The search for Cinderella is all-consuming, debated from Selection Sunday to tip-offs across the country. Double-digit seeds are elevated to once-a-year status: No. 14 seed Mercer, a team that no one would pick to defeat No. 3 Duke in the regular season, suddenly becomes a hot upset choice, as fans seek the sense of satisfaction that comes with predicting the stunner correctly, and loudly.
For the teams on the other side — entering the game as the favorite that has somehow lost its luster — it’s a strange experience. And after all of the talk, the higher-seeded teams win most of the time, even if it’s not always easy.
“The seed doesn’t always tell the story,” Duke sophomore forward Amile Jefferson said. “As a player, you have to know you’re going up against someone who’s hungry. If that team comes with more fight than you, they can pull off the game. We understand that and we’ll be ready to fight.”
DATA DRIVES MIND-SET Bracketeers obsessed with calling the upsets know the numbers: No No. 16 seed has beaten a No. 1, and only a handful of No. 15 and 14 seeds have shocked their foes.
But when it gets to matchups between No. 4 and No. 13, or No. 5 and No. 12, the numbers start to change. Since 2000, No. 12 seeds are 23-33 vs. No. 5 seeds (41%), the highest percentage for any seed below No. 9. Last year, No. 12 seeds won three of four matchups with No. 5s.
More and more, fans are crunching numbers to determine their best chances for upsets. Statistician Nate Silver has made a career out of analyzing election and baseball data. This week, he relaunched his popular website, FiveThirtyEight.com, with a detailed breakdown of each team’s chance of winning every game. PredictionMachine.com, a website that calculates the odds for each team to win the NCAA tournament by playing 50,000 virtual games, also tries to help people identify likely upsets. Enter North Dakota State. “I would like to know how many people that picked us have seen us play,” North Dakota State coach Saul Phillips said before the game. “I mean, come on. … Obama was not at any of our games. I would have known that one. … 5-12s are always trendy.”
Another No. 12 seed and popular upset pick plays today — Stephen F. Austin, picked by many to beat Virginia Commonwealth, a former Cinderella. And the Rams know how to handle the chatter: Use it for motivation.
“We’ve always been good when people doubt us,” VCU coach Shaka Smart said. “I don’t think it’s so much about us. I think it’s about people picking them.”
BLUE DEVIL REMEMBERS For gutsier bracketeers, No. 14 Mercer over No. 3 Duke today is a tempting choice — perhaps seen as more plausible after the Blue Devils, then a No. 2 seed, were shocked by No. 15 Lehigh in 2012.
Duke senior guard Tyler Thornton was on that team, one of the few veterans who experi- enced the wrong end of a Cinderella story. Only seven times since the NCAA field expanded to 64 has a No. 15 seed upset a No. 2.
Thornton said he doesn’t think about that Lehigh game, though he added that the program has used it as a teaching point.
“Teams will get beat, thinking they’re just going to win,” he said. “This is a totally different team, totally different core group. We are going to try not to experience anything like that this year.”
But Mercer has the credentials required to pull off an eye-opening upset. The Bears are led by a potential game-changer in senior guard Langston Hall. Hall has scored 20 or more points in 11 games this season, reminiscent of former Lehigh guard C.J. McCollum, who scored 30 two years ago vs. Duke. Mercer also has played a few high-major teams in its nonconference schedule, including Texas, Oklahoma and Mississippi.
Perhaps most important, the Bears have five senior starters.
“That’s a big benefit to us,” senior forward Bud Thomas said. “We get to develop our friendship, both on and off the court, as teammates and roommates and everything. We feel like we can beat anybody because of the four years we’ve had together and all the chemistry we’ve developed.”
Camaraderie breeds confidence as well. Because of it, none of Mercer’s players seemed in awe of Duke and its tradition. Coach Bob Hoffman took a slight jab at the Blue Devils, saying they weren’t “a traditional power-conference team” because they didn’t have a ton of size inside.
In short, a potential star player, experience and confidence make Mercer sound a lot like Cinderellas of NCAA tournaments past and present — like Harvard, which pulled off its upset Thursday by combining a balanced offensive attack and staunch defense with poise (and made free throws) down the stretch.
“We were definitely the hot 12-5 pick,” Harvard senior forward Kyle Casey said. “But we were all really focused on doing our job. We knew we’d have to go out there and still take this matchup. That’s what we did.”