STARS MIGHT BE OUT IN 2015
Players drafted after first round in ’11 to cash in
A glance at the list of players not under contract after this season suggests the 2015 NFL free agent class might be the best ever.
However, because of the threeyear-old collective bargaining agreement, teams must decide by May 3 whether to pick up options for 2015 on players drafted in the first round in 2011. The option ensures players a one-year salary that’s the average of those of the 10 top-paid players at their positions. That means Pro Bowlers such as Cam Newton, A.J. Green and J.J. Watt almost certainly won’t reach the market next year.
“(The rookie contracts) cover a long period of time with less opportunity to get out and no opportunity to negotiate in the first three years,” ESPN sports business analyst Andrew Brandt, once a salary-cap specialist for the Green Bay Packers, told USA TODAY Sports. “Theoretically, Newton, Watt, whomever you want to name, they’re under contract for two more years, which gives their teams great negotiating leverage (for a long-term deal).”
Even if teams use the options, they can cut the players before the 2015 season as long as they’re not hurt. “Locking a guy in for an injury guarantee is not a big deal,” Brandt said. “It’s a real bonus for teams.”
However, players picked after Round 1 in 2011 will have the chance to break the bank sooner. Second- and third-day draft picks can cash in with the franchise tag a year from now if they don’t sign bigger deals first.
With that, here are 10 stars who might benefit from the free agent system next year:
1. QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (second round, 2011): These days, even better-than-average quarterbacks such as Jay Cutler and Tony Romo command $18 million annually. Kaepernick still has strides to make as a passer, but he also has superlative athleticism and already owns four postseason wins. If he doesn’t get an extension soon, he will surely be tagged.
2. WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos (first round,
2010): If Mike Wallace was worth $12 million a season on the open market in 2013, it’s fair to wonder if Thomas would command $15 million yearly. Few receivers have the same nose for the end zone, but Thomas might be even more rare for his dynamic run-after-catch power. The Broncos could also be facing deci- sions on OLB Von Miller and TE Julius Thomas in 2015.
3. WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (first round, 2010): He’s almost a carbon copy of Thomas, and his numbers bear that out even though he doesn’t have the benefit of working with Peyton Manning. Bryant’s fire can be viewed as an asset or detriment depending on the beholder.
4. FS Earl Thomas, Seattle Seahawks (first round, 2010): Some regard the two-time all-pro as the keystone of the NFL’s best defense. If Jairus Byrd is worth $9 million a season, there’s little doubt Thomas will become the first at his position whose yearly salary averages eight figures.
5. CB Richard Sherman, Seahawks (fifth round, 2011): Then again, there’s an argument that Sherman, arguably the NFL’s premier corner, is Seattle’s most valuable defender. His 16 picks over the last two seasons are a
testament to ball skills rarely seen at the position.
6. DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions (first round, 2010): No quarterback wants to step up in the pocket against Suh. And his on-field rage would be welcomed by clubs lacking the coveted junkyard dog mentality.
7. CB Darrelle Revis, New England Patriots (first round, 2007): By the time the 2014 season wraps, he will have earned $84 million in eight years. Why? Because he’s as shrewd off the field as he is dominant on it. Assuming he returns to peak form in the second year after anterior cruciate ligament surgery, the only thing that might depress his price tag — assuming the Pats don’t pick up his $20 million option — is a market of younger corners, possibly including the Cleveland Browns’ Joe Haden.
8. TE Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints (third round, 2010): Depending how this year’s anticipated franchise tag standoff pans out, Graham could be looking at a tag worth upwards of $12 million in 2015 if he’s tagged a second time. But whether it’s this year or next, he’ll eventually become the league’s first $10 million-a-season tight end.
9. OLB Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs (third round, 2011): He took another step up in class last year, notching 11 sacks in 11 games before an elbow injury derailed him. But a 6-3, 260-pound edge rusher will command quite a ransom in a league in which half of the teams favor the 3-4 defense.
10. DE Greg Hardy, Carolina Panthers (sixth round, 2010): Like Graham, he seems more likely to land a multiyear agreement sooner than later. If not, the Panthers would have to pony up about $16 million to tag Hardy again in 2015. Given the premium on pass rushers in today’s NFL — and especially ones also stout against the run — he might even be worth it.