Alaska key to GOP Senate takeover
Race unlike any other as Democrats try to protect their majority
Senate Democratic candidates are walking a political tightrope in the dozen races that will determine control of the chamber next year and shape the final years of President Obama’s second term.
Nowhere is that more evident than in Alaska, where Sen. Mark Begich is on the attack against the Republican vying to defeat him, even as he embraces other Republican lawmakers and conservative policies in his bid for a second term here.
It will be the costliest battle in Alaska history and holds national consequences for Democrats, who are on defense to protect their 55-45 majority amid a sour national mood toward the president and with many of the deciding races being fought on GOP ground.
Already, Republicans are poised to gain three of the six seats they need to take control of the chamber with victories likely in the open seat races in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
There are nine additional races that will determine the make-up of the Senate, and Democrats are defending seven seats to just two for Republicans. Democrats are on offense in only two states — Kentucky and Georgia — and they are both states that Obama lost in 2008 and 2012.
National Democrats are particularly bullish about a Begich victory, and they need to be. A Begich defeat on Election Day would very likely coincide with a Republican takeover.
That’s why Begich is not the only Democratic incumbent reaching out to independents and conservative voters to pull out a win.
Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, Arkansas’ Mark Pryor and North Carolina’s Kay Hagan are campaigning on their independence from Obama and willingness to buck the Democratic Party line as they seek re-election in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012.
The three states are at the top
of the GOP’s target list, and each incumbent is polling within single digits of their GOP opponents. Victory in all three would deliver the six seats Republicans need, which has upped the pressure for Democrats in Kentucky and Georgia to pick up one or both GOP-held seats.
Democrats tapped Alison Lundergan Grimes in the David- Goliath race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. An open seat race is under way in Georgia, where Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Democratic senator Sam Nunn, is facing businessman David Perdue. If Democrats are unable to pick up a seat in either state, their odds of holding the Senate drop further.
Democrats have also been put on the defense in Colorado, Iowa, and Michigan in races that were not thought to be hotly contested at the onset of the election year.
The retirements of Democratic Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Tom Harkin of Iowa provided Republicans with opportunities that would not exist otherwise. Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley is running in Iowa, but the candidate’s missteps — including a dismissive comment caught on tape about the state’s popular GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley — has helped make the race against state Sen. Joni Ernst competitive.
In Michigan, Republican Terri Lynn Land has also managed to narrow a race against Democratic nominee Rep. Gary Peters in a state that has been held by Democrats since 1979. And GOP Rep. Cory Gardner’s last-minute decision to jump into the Colorado race against incumbent Sen. Mark Udall has made that race competitive as well.
The sum total of the races is a map that could add up to a GOP takeover. Jennifer Duffy, a nonpartisan elections analyst for The Cook Political Report, has put the odds at 50:50: “It’s a jump ball.”
Talk of national consequences ranks below local interests here in Alaska, where exuding authenticity and mastering the state’s unique political contours will be the key to winning this November.
THE ALASKA BATTLE Alaska’s political lines are unlike any state in the contiguous USA, or “Outside,” as it is referred to here, and federal efforts to influence the state are generally met with skepticism, resistance or outright opposition. “We believe a government has a role but not a role to mess with our personal and private issues,” Begich said.
“There’s some federal money that expanded that road we just drove on,” Begich acknowledges, pointing toward Seward Highway during a recent campaign swing through the city where he was once mayor. “Republicans don’t like federal money. If they want to kill the Alaska economy, be against the federal government.”
At the same time, Begich touts a voting record that he says tracks 80% with Alaska’s senior Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, and his relationship with Rep. Don Young, the most senior Republican in the U.S. House.
He’s run ads picturing himself and Murkowski together, and at a recent Democratic fundraiser he cast the trio as “a team” working together in Congress. Murkowski has requested him to stop using her image and counters that their votes have split on critical issues like Obama’s health care bill, which Begich supported.
The state historically leans Republican, but the majority of voters, 53%, affiliate with no political party and consider themselves swing voters. Begich faces former state attorney general Dan Sullivan in November.
Lane Bottemiller, an Anchor- age-based tour guide, is one such undeclared voter. He picked Sullivan in the Aug. 19 primary, but said he was undecided in the general. “I want to give Begich a run, and I wanted to see the most qualified and experienced candidates go head-to-head,” he said. “I wanted to get (Sullivan) up there so that we can watch the dogfight and see who can really present the best goals for Alaska.”
Support for the U.S. military runs deep in a state with many veterans and where reliance on federal assistance is critical, but skepticism about government is so high that the right to privacy is enshrined in the state constitution. Post-9/11 policies like the Patriot Act, expanded surveillance laws and drones are deeply unpopular.
Sullivan, a Marine officer, has a natural base of support among the military community here. Begich touts his voting record against expanding government surveillance.
Social issues don’t fall along clean party lines, where support for gun rights is absolute, but support for abortion rights is also strong.
Begich and Sullivan both support gun rights, but Begich is running aggressively on his support for abortion rights, while Sullivan opposes abortion except in the case of rape or incest. In an effort to appeal to women, Begich also touts his support for equal-pay laws and raising the minimum wage.
Sullivan handily won a threeway Aug. 19 primary against Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and Tea Party favorite Joe Miller. Democrats are hoping that some of the forces that propelled him to victory in the primary will do harm in the general election.
For example, Sullivan secured an endorsement from the fiscally conservative group Club for Growth, but their nod could be dubious in a general election where their stringent positions opposing spending bills most Alaskans support, such as a recent highway funding bill. Begich and Murkowski both voted for the highway bill.
Sullivan did not back away from the group in an e-mail interview the day after his primary victory. “Club for Growth endorsed me because I will back good governance, lower taxes, and fiscal sanity in Washington, D.C.,” he said, “Those are values I think most Alaskans want their senator to have.”
And at a time when most Americans say they’d like to see their member of Congress tossed out, Alaskans have had an enduring support for incumbency and political legacies. Begich is the son of former Democratic representative Nick Begich, who was killed in a 1972 plane crash.
“If Begich can survive this election he will probably be in for life,” Alaska GOP pollster Marc Hellenthal said.