Racing against time
Chase hopefuls without victories have two chances to win their way in
Just like that, the Chase for the Sprint Cup points race isn’t much of a race.
With two events remaining until NASCAR’s 16-driver playoff field is set — Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Sept. 6 at Richmond International Raceway — there isn’t much drama for the four available spots currently based on points. Greg Biffle holds the 16th and final position, a healthy 26 points ahead of Kyle Larson and 33 ahead of Kasey Kahne. Each point represents one spot on the track.
What is the most feasible way for drivers such as Larson, Kahne, Austin Dillon or Paul Menard to make the Chase now? Win one of the next two races.
Points racing might be off the table, which is what NASCAR promised when it instituted a new playoff qualifying format at the beginning of the season that gave more weight to victories. But this is likely not quite what officials had in mind.
The focus for most of the season has been on the weekly winners instead of points. Richmond — the site of a points-manipulation scandal that rocked the sport last year — promised to highlight
both. With 16 spots available and 12 different winners, there will be two to four positions available for winless drivers who can qualify on points.
If Kahne doesn’t win, he’d be one of the biggest names to miss the Chase.
Tony Stewart, who has missed the last three races after the death of sprint car driver Kevin Ward Jr., would need to return, win and get a waiver from NASCAR to be eligible (drivers must at least attempt to qualify each weekend).
Among other drivers from big teams who could miss: Michael Waltrip Racing ’s Brian Vickers, Stewart-Haas Racing ’s Danica Patrick and her boyfriend Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who drives for Roush Fenway Racing; and Furniture Row Racing ’s Martin Truex Jr. (who lost his 2013 Chase spot with MWR in the scandal fallout).
After Saturday’s race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the race to the Chase isn’t shaping up to be much of a contest.
Matt Kenseth holds the first non-winner position, 83 points inside the current Chase cutoff. Ryan Newman is 42 points ahead of the cutoff. So barring a meltdown in the final two weeks from Biffle or Clint Bowyer (31 points ahead of Larson), Richmond might be a win-or-go-home race for every driver in the top 30 not currently in Chase position.
It certainly looked as if the scenario would be different halfway through Saturday’s race.
There was Kahne, who entered Bristol nine points out of a Chase spot, leading the race and looking for his first win of the year. But then he had to pit with a loose wheel — yet another costly mistake by his team in a year full of errors — and his night was ruined (he later had to go behind the wall, and he finished 35th).
There was Jamie McMurray, who had fallen out of points contention but was suddenly leading laps (he notched a career-high 148). Instead, his car got too tight with 100 laps to go and he faded to eighth.
And how about Dillon? Before Bristol, the rookie was 22 points out of a Chase berth — even ahead of Larson, who has come much closer to winning among the rookies. (Larson has five topfives; Dillon has one.) But Dillon finished seven laps down in 28th.
Atlanta could change the picture again. A surprise winner at the 1.5-mile track would leave only three spots available for points racers heading into Richmond. But intermediate-length tracks such as Atlanta tend to favor the best teams, meaning an upset is unlikely.