Olympic gymnastics spots up in air
U.S. lineup likely to take many twists before Rio Games
Go ahead and try to predict who will be on the U.S. women’s gymnastics team for the Rio Olympics. Throw some darts blindfolded while you’re at it, too.
The results would be about the same.
There’s less than two years until the 2016 Games, but anyone who claims to know who the Rio version of the Fierce Five will be has no idea what they’re talking about. Even women’s national team coordinator Martha Karolyi doesn’t know, and she knows all when it comes to gymnastics.
This is not a bad thing, mind you. Or a sign that the American juggernaut is sputtering. Quite the contrary. The senior field at this past weekend’s U.S. Gymnastics Championships might have been thin, but it represented only a fraction of the gymnasts who will be in the mix in 2016.
Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman are training again. Fellow Fierce Fiver McKayla Maroney should be back next year, having recovered from her latest knee surgery. A handful of the top seniors missed nationals because of injuries.
And then there are the juniors, a whole crop of world-beaters no one besides gymnastics fanatics have even heard of yet. A tip: Remember the names Nia Dennis, Norah Flatley and Bailie Key.
“It was very difficult making the last one, and it’s going to be very difficult making this one,” Raisman said Saturday of earning an Olympic team spot. “It’s just cool to think how many good girls are out there.”
So many that the USA could send two teams to Rio and both would wind up on the podium. Seriously. The USA will send its B, maybe C, team to the world championships this fall — and be favored to win the team title and a slew of other medals, too.
“The (current) field is not extremely large, but the quality of what these girls are doing, I’m pleased with it,” Karolyi said.
But no one, not even reigning world and U.S. champion Simone Biles, can get complacent, because Karolyi has no room for sentimentality when Olympic medals are at stake.
That’s what makes predicting a squad two years out so impossible, especially in gymnastics, where timing is as important as talent. Comebacks fizzle. Can’t-miss kids get injured. Some peak too early. Others come on at just the right time. Just look at the 2012 team. Two years before the London Games, Rebecca Bross was the U.S. all-around champion. Joining her on the world team that year were Bridget Sloan, Mattie Larson, Mackenzie Caquatto, Alicia Sacramone and Raisman. Besides Raisman, do any of those names ring a bell now?
By the next world championships, Sloan, Larson and Caquatto were out and Douglas, Maroney and Jordyn Wieber were in. Add Kyla Ross, who was still a junior in 2011, and Raisman, and there’s your Fierce Five.
“It motivates me. They were in the same situation as me,” Flatley, the junior all-around bronze medalist, said of the 2012 team’s quick rise.
That’s not to say Biles won’t be a factor in Rio.
The pint-sized powerhouse is by far the best gymnast in the world, with dazzling skills and a captivating presence.
She hasn’t lost any significant time to injuries, and she’s still having as much fun as a 6-yearold turned loose in the gym.
But two years is an eternity in gymnastics, and there’s no telling what will happen.
The only certainty is that the USA will be the team to beat, no matter who is on it.