Computer shift puts ’Bama on top
Conference play likely means more changes
College football computer rankings can see distinct shifts from week to week, especially before conference play begins in earnest. That is one explanation for the changes seen at the top of the College Football Computer Composite coming out of Week 4.
Alabama moved up three spots to No. 1 this week while Oklahoma and Oregon slipped two and four spots, respectively. Both the No. 4 Sooners and No. 5 Ducks won on the road against increasingly potent Air Raid offenses.
“You’ll see a lot of jumping around and disagreement between the rankings for a few more weeks until all the schools are well connected,” wrote Ken Massey, whose ratings make up one-fifth of the CFCC. “Right now those connections are very weak and unstable.
“Alabama jumped to (No.) 1 in Colley and Sagarin, but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why.”
Oregon was No. 1 in last week’s CFCC. Alabama is part of a Southeastern Conference West that is 22-0 against non-divisional opponents. All seven SEC West teams are in the top 37 of the CFCC. The two Mississippi schools in the SEC West are backto-back, with Ole Miss at No. 10 and Mississippi State at No. 11.
The CFCC’s highest-rated winless team is 0-3 Rice at No. 89. The lowest-rated unbeaten is 4-0 North Carolina State at No. 48.
Rice’s opponent last Saturday, Old Dominion, was the biggest riser in this week’s CFCC with a 23-spot jump. Louisiana Tech, which had moved up 50 spots in the last two weeks, was the biggest decliner this week with a drop of 26 spots. Louisiana Tech fell 30-27 to Northwestern State on Saturday.
The CFCC removes the human element from college football ratings. It is the product of five of the computer rankings that contributed to the Bowl Championship Series. Richard Billingsley, Wes Colley, Jeff Sagarin, Peter Wolfe and Massey have combined the metrics that helped forge 16 years of championship matchups to give an objective rating of all 128 FBS teams. Among those metrics are wins and losses, strength of schedule, home-field advantage, recency of game and, in some cases, margin of victory.