WHAT WE PREDICT FOR 2015
And how we fared from our forecasts for last year ...
Cal Thomas is a conservative columnist. Bob Beckel is a liberal Democratic strategist. But as longtime friends, they can often find common ground on issues that lawmakers in Washington cannot.
Today: The crystal ball
CAL: It’s time for our annual predictions for the New Year. I don’t like to brag …
BOB: Since when?
CAL: … but most of my predictions for last year came true.
BOB: Go ahead rub it in.
CAL: I correctly predicted that most Democrats would flee Obamacare, and that Republicans would win sweeping victories in the House and Senate in November.
BOB: This election was not about Obamacare; it was about too many Democrats up for reelection in red states, an unpopular Democratic president and a large GOP turnout. I predicted Obamacare would attract millions of uninsured, which it did. President Obama’s health care program will become more popular in 2015.
CAL: I also predicted that the president’s approval numbers would continue to fall (they did until just last week), and that the stock market would reach record highs (it has). My only wrong prediction was that the Washington Nationals would win the World Series.
BOB: We were both right on the stock market but wrong on the Nats, but nobody bats 1,000! I also predicted a big international crisis, which I thought would be the Suez Canal but instead it was Russia occupying the Crimea.
CAL: Now for 2015. Political divisions between and within each party will intensify, with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party causing problems for the rank and file and the conservative
wing of the GOP frustrating its leadership in both chambers. The Pew Research Center has found “the public is deeply pessimistic about the prospects for healing the nation’s deep political divisions.” Only 26% of us are satisfied with the direction of the country, while 71% are dissatisfied. Given the 2016 presidential stakes, that chasm is unlikely to be narrowed in 2015.
BOB: I have a more optimistic prediction. Obama and Republicans will pay a very large political price for continued inaction. As a result, both sides will find some common ground on tax reform, trade and immigration.
CAL: I hope you’re right about tax reform. Polls show while the public may be split on how to handle undocumented workers, they overwhelming favor securing the border. I predict Republicans will pass a bill to do precisely that and dare Obama to veto it. Republicans I’ve talked to think if he vetoes it, enough Democrats in both houses will join them to override him.
BOB: I agree a bill making our borders stronger will pass Congress, but the Obama administration will insist that any bill must include allowing undocumented workers who do not have criminal records to stay in the U.S., pay fines for entering illegally and support other immigrants who are seeking citizenship and have followed the rules to become U.S. citizens. The bill will put severe restrictions on future immigrants so those already here can be assimilated.
CAL: As many as two dozen GOP presidential candidates may announce their intentions in 2015. A front-runner will emerge who will be a governor, or former governor, not a senator. Congress is held in very low esteem. In the states there are real accomplishments, especially in states headed by Republican governors and GOP legislatures, of which there are numbers not seen in my lifetime.
BOB: And that’s saying something given your age.
CAL: There you go again, Bob.
BOB: Again we find agreement. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush has announced an exploratory committee. Other Republican governors, including New Jersey’s Chris Christie and Ohio’s John Kasich, may jump in. But Republicans in Congress who are considering a run are far too conservative, like Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
CAL: With the announcement last month of renewed diplomatic ties to Cuba and the Cuban-American Rubio’s strong negative response, he could well be a vice presidential selection on a GOP ticket. And that could attract many Hispanic voters, which the party needs.
BOB: Overseas, 2015 will witness several serious events: The continuing battle with the extremist Islamic State; the potentially more dangerous meltdown of the oil-based Russian economy; the invasion of the rest of Ukraine, or another former USSR territory, by President Vladimir Putin to divert his people’s focus from the economy. It won’t work.
CAL: I predict the U.S. will announce a nuclear deal with Iran, which will not deter that country’s fanatical leaders from building a nuclear bomb. Israel will be forced to go it alone and attack Iran’s nuclear sites, possibly triggering terrorist attacks by Iranian agents already placed in the U.S. and in Europe.
BOB: As for our annual sports predictions: The Washington Redskins will neither change the team name nor improve its lousy play.
CAL: I’m sticking with the Washington Nationals to go all the way in 2015. And I’m sticking with you, Bob, my friend. May you have a healthy, prosperous and blessed New Year.
BOB: A very Happy New Year to you and your family, my “young ” friend.