Race to the right could run over eventual GOP nominee
Unlike the Democrats, whose race for the presidential nomination is shaping up as a yawner, Republicans are looking at a diverse and competitive field. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows none of the GOP hopefuls reaching even 10% among Republican voters.
So far, three first-term senators — Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and, on Monday, Marco Rubio of Florida — have entered the race. Several more candidates, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush, are expected to follow.
Each of the declared candidates is impressive in his own way. Cruz is the leading edge of the hard-core conservative wing of the party. Paul comes to the race as the libertarian, promising to shake up the party and attract younger and non-white voters. And Rubio is trying to position himself as a dynamic conservative who can appeal beyond the traditional Republican electorate.
The challenge for all of them will be winning the nomination in a way that leaves them in good position for the general election.
In 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney shifted right on a number of issues to win the nomination. On immigration, he spoke of making life so hard for undocumented workers that they would “self-deport.” Perhaps not surprisingly, he was crushed by immigrant voters in November. Latinos gave him only 27% of their vote.
Something similar could happen this time around. Cruz starts the race so far to the right that he would be a monumental gamble if the party were to choose him as its nominee. And the other two have migrated their positions closer to the Tea Party template.
Paul, for instance, has become much more hawkish on foreign policy and decided to oppose same-sex marriage, both of which conform with party orthodoxy but seem hard to reconcile with his libertarianism. Similarly, to appease a key faction of the party, Rubio has abandoned the bipartisan immigration reform measure he once championed.
This race to the right might be a simple calculation that Bush has locked up the only slot for an establishment candidate who challenges the party’s most conservative doctrines on immigration and education. The other three, as well as candidates yet to announce, are trying to position themselves as the alternative.
Whoever ultimately emerges as the Republican nominee will need some freedom to maneuver.
Republicans are now roughly where the Democrats were in 1992. Having lost five of the previous six presidential elections, the Democrats opted then for a candidate, Bill Clinton, who advocated restrictions on welfare, more police funding and other centrist positions outside of party norms.
Republicans today have lost the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections. They will need a candidate who can make the case for change but who also takes a practical approach to solving problems.
After their recent presidential losses, Republicans are hungry to get back into the White House. They have many bright, energetic and accomplished candidates. The question is whether they can rally behind one who’s far enough into the political mainstream that it gives them a chance to win.