Today’s Afghanistan resembles 1985’s
Crossing the border into Afghanistan was easier than expected. We were dressed in
shalwar kameez, the baggy pants and over-garment favored by locals, and were told to keep our mouths shut so as not to bring attention to ourselves as foreigners.
But the Pakistani guards waved us in without even glancing inside the car after one of our mujahedin guides slipped them a box of fresh ammunition.
As we crossed a gap in the mountains, we began descending into a broad green valley. Our driver turned around with a grin and swept his arm out in front of him. “Afghanistan,” he said simply, and returned to the wheel of the Toyota Land Cruiser as it bounced along the winding road.
It was 1985 and the United States was backing the mujahedin in their guerrilla battle against the Russians, who had come in several years earlier with thousands of troops, tanks and aircraft in an effort to crush the rebellion and prop up the central government.
I was reminded of that trip Wednesday, when I heard reports of another Taliban attack in the heart of Kabul. The Taliban — today’s guerrillas — attacked a hotel killing 14 innocent people, including one American and other foreigners.
It’s dangerous to draw conclusions from one attack, but security in Kabul, once pretty safe for foreigners, is deteriorating. The Taliban has also begun attacking in the countryside, where the reach of the central government is tenuous at best.
The United States and its coalition partners are leaving Afghanistan and there are signs that the Taliban, who was never defeated, is re-emerging. What will be left in our wake?
The Afghans have absorbed and expelled many foreign invaders over the centuries. The Russians have little to show for their occupation other than rusted hulks of tanks that still mar the landscape.
With a small band of mujahedin, we traveled to Khost, at the time a vast Soviet military base near the border of Pakistan. From a tiny guerrilla outpost tucked into the surrounding mountains, we watched from a distance giant Soviet cargo planes land and take off.
After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks that prompted the U.S. invasion a month later, I returned to Afghanistan, arriving in the north as the United States was mobilizing opposition to overthrow the Taliban. U.S. commandos rode on horseback, helping to direct airstrikes against Taliban positions.
That small incursion turned into a massive global effort. The U.S. had about 100,000 troops in Afghanistan by 2011.
I’ve made regular trips to Afghanistan since 2001. Standing on massive and supposedly secure U.S. bases, I thought back to Khost in 1985. Were bands of insurgents sitting on hills watching us and biding their time?
The mujahedin had ancient weapons, but they were effective guerrillas using time-tested tactics. There were no cellphones. Men stood on mountaintops acting as a primitive radar, warning the others when the Soviets’ fearsome Hind attack helicopters were approaching. Runners delivered messages among the bands of insurgents.
These were hardened men who were born to fight.
Back then, I came away convinced that neither side could win. The Soviets held major cities and roads. The mujahedin would continue hit-and-run tactics but couldn’t hold terrain.
I returned last week from my latest trip to Afghanistan, a short NATO-sponsored visit to talk with Afghan and U.S. leaders. We were on bases, largely isolated from ordinary Afghans.
But I was haunted by that first visit to the country. The insurgents can’t take over the government, but they will keep fighting, hoping to destabilize the government. The attack on the hotel Wednesday is a reminder of that.
The Taliban is a ruthless group who has almost zero support among the population. But ideology is secondary. Many of the insurgents are bands of fighters who might align themselves with the Taliban one day and fight them the next. Violence is the only constant.
During an interview with Afghan Interior Minister Nur ul-Haq Ulumi, I asked him if the high casualties the Afghan security forces were taking this year affected morale. Afghans are used to fighting, Ulumi said.
“They were born in war, they grew up in war,” he said. “They know what war is about.”
I wonder if they can learn about peace.