Myths, tips and facts for your handicapping pleasure
Here are a few notes to keep in mind while handicapping Saturday’s $1.5 million Preakness Stakes, for which Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah is the 4-5 favorite:
Pimlico myth I: Those reputedly tight turns. Among racing ’s myths is that Pimlico Race Course’s turns are much tighter than Churchill Downs’ and that it makes the track more speed-favoring.
So we asked a man who should know: Jamie Richardson, who spent 22 years on the Maryland Jockey Club’s track maintenance crew, including as superintendent, is Churchill Downs’ assistant track superintendent and will assume the top spot June 1 upon David Lehr’s retirement.
“To me, they are very, very similar,” Richardson said of Pimlico and Churchill Downs, both a mile in circumference. “They are so close you almost need to look at blueprints to tell the difference.”
Richardson says the reputation for the tight turns could be fostered by the fact that Churchill Downs’ turns have more banking.
“Pimlico’s turns are relatively flat; they’re not banked as steeply as Churchill’s. I think that could be it. Go back to the 1980s, (Pimlico) was a speed-biased track, but I think that died away a number of years ago.
“Pimlico also narrows down a lot. Around the three-eighths pole, it gets very narrow. And I’m sure that could be an optical illusion to riders and exercise riders making the turn.”
Pimlico myth II:
Closers can’t win the Preakness. Since Maryland-based Aloma’s Ruler wired the field in 1982, only three other horses have led all the way: Oxbow in 2013, Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Louis Quatorze in 1996.
Meanwhile, 14 winners since then were fifth or farther back after a half-mile, including Afleet Alex coming from 10th in 2005, Curlin seventh of nine in 2007, Red Bullet seventh of eight in 2000. Charismatic (1999) and Prairie Bayou (1993) were eighth after three-quarters of a mile.
Derby runners-up: While 22 Kentucky Derby winners have captured the Preakness since 1960, only three Derby runnersup have prevailed at Pimlico in that span, the last being Prairie Bayou. The others: Bally Ache in 1960 and Summer Squall in 1990.
The Derby seconds’ combined record: three firsts, 12 seconds and nine thirds in 39 Preakness starts since 1960.
Derby also-rans: The last horse to win the Derby after finishing fifth or worse in its prior start was Iron Liege in 1957. The Preakness, however, is far more forgiving.
Ten Preakness winners since 1984 finished fifth or worse in the Derby, the poster children for getting a Derby mulligan being Louis Quatorze (16th in the 1996 Derby), Hansel (10th, 1991) and Snow Chief (11th, 1986).