How Turkey’s unrest affects U.S.
Ally bridges Europe and Asia, helps stabilize region
The horrific suicide bombings that killed 95 people at a peace rally in the Turkish capital on Saturday showcase a growing crisis for a crucial U.S. ally in a region that’s on fire over conflicts that have proven too divisive and complex to resolve.
The United States has long looked toward Turkey as a rock in a storm because of its strategic location — bridging Europe and Asia and sharing borders with Syria and Iraq. In Syria, civil war rages into its fifth year, and the rampaging Islamic State has seized large portions of both Syria and Iraq. Not far beyond Turkey’s borders new violence spreads among West Bank and Gaza Palestinians.
The following are four questions about the rifts revealed by Saturday’s explosions outside a train station in Ankara:
WHO WOULD CARRY OUT SUCH AN ATTACK AND WHY?
No one has claimed responsibility, but there is no shortage of suspects. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said it was Kurdish separatist rebels or Islamic State militants, both recent targets of Turkish military strikes. Leaders of the largely Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party or HDP — which rocked Turkey in June by capturing enough votes to gain a bloc of seats in parliament — are suspicious of the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for failing to prevent the massacre.
Even the Syrian government would have a motive for destabi- lizing a neighboring giant that has called for the removal of Syrian President Bashar Assad. “The Turks have threats coming at them from multiple directions at a level of political complexity,” said Steven Cook, an expert on Turkish politics at the Council on Foreign Relations.
WHY IS THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT A TARGET OF SUSPICION IN THE WAKE OF THE BLASTS?
Erdogan has for four years worked to consolidate power, suppress political freedoms and transform Turkey from a secular to an Islamic nation. With a parliamentary super-majority he could push through necessary constitutional changes. But those plans were dashed by the June election results, which failed to give Erdogan the mandate he sought. Instead, the results showed the Kurds a peaceful avenue of influence through democratic rather than violent means.
Machinations by Erdogan has produced a second round of voting on Nov. 1, Cook said. But surveys show the Kurdish HDP party likely will repeat its gains in June, and Erdogan’s opposition fears a campaign of intimidation by the government in response. WHAT’S AT STAKE FOR TURKEY IN THE SHORT TERM?
There’s fear of growing instability in a nation of 80 million that is a NATO member. If the government holds Kurdish rebels responsible for the bombings and the HDP is routed at the polls Nov. 1, it “would send a message to predominantly Kurds: you have played by the rules ... ( but) you are not actually welcome to play politics,” Cook said.
Analysts worry that if Erdogan sees himself once again likely to be denied a super-majority, he will postpone the elections or suspend the constitution — steps further polarizing the nation.
Meanwhile, Kurdish successes against the Islamic State are heightening fears among Turkish nationalists of growing Kurdish power to carve out an independent state. WHY IS TURKEY SO IMPORTANT TO THE U.S.?
Turkey has struggled to control its borders with Syria, allowing jihadist recruits from western countries a pathway to join the Islamic State and, in turn, providing the terrorists a way West.
The U.S. has a direct interest in seeing stability for its ally, but it also has a desire to see rights of peaceful protesters safeguarded. “I think in this case, our strategic interests in the region ... and our commitment to democracy are probably on a head-on collision course,” said Elizabeth Shakman Hurd, an associate professor of political science at Northwestern University.