6 WAYS TO PICK A HOUSE SPEAKER
Forgive me, Founding Fathers, for I have sinned. I know that certain resolutions to the Republican chaos on Capitol Hill would be bad for the country, but I keep thinking impure thoughts about how much they would help Democrats.
Nothing says dysfunctional like an open House speaker job that few want or seem capable of winning — possibly due to Tea Party demands that would lead to havoc, maybe on an international scale, and falling poll ratings that could reach record lows. For Democrats, what’s not to like?
Good-government, center-left nerds like me usually root for the forces of moderation and compromise, even knowing that would probably improve the Republican Party’s image and odds of winning elections. But the bald political calculation is tempting, given the policy stakes and the spectacle of a duel between the fantasist and realist wings of the modern GOP.
The friction was perfectly captured in an exchange this month on NBC’s Meet The Press. Moderate Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa.: “We have to establish bipartisan coalitions to pass any meaningful legislation.” Tea Party Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va.: “There you go again.” How does this end? Here are six scenarios in rough order of worst to best outcome for the Republican Party (and the reverse, best to worst, for the Democratic Party):
1 The GOP goes full Tea Party. The House Freedom Caucus — 40 of 247 House Republicans — manages to elect a speaker committed to its many procedural demands and policy goals. The lists, published by Politico, ask prospective speakers to make sure House spending bills don’t contain any money for Planned Parenthood, “unconstitutional amnesty,” the Affordable Care Act or the Iran nuclear deal, and to attach significant policy and process amendments to mustpass fiscal bills such as increasing the debt limit. Each of these alone is an invitation to confrontation and government shutdowns. That apparently does not disturb the Freedom Caucus. And to be clear, we are not talking about some distant future. The debt limit will need to be raised by early next month, and money to fund the government runs out about a month later.
2 The GOP tries for a Tea Party-establishment hybrid. This is the Paul Ryan option. The austere budgets crafted by the former Budget Committee chairman and 2012 vice presidential nominee made him a conservative hero. But Ryan is a deal-maker. His most famous deal, the 2013 budget agreement he worked out with Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., expires Dec. 11. Already, the Tea Party Patriots group has branded Ryan a RYNO (a personalized variation of RINO, or “Republican in name only”).
Not surprisingly, Ryan is unenthused about the job. As speaker, he wouldn’t see much of his young family. He’d lose his chance to rewrite the tax code as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. He might lose his best shot at the presidency. As the national face of conservatism, he could even lose his Wisconsin House seat. His hometown and home county are heavily Democratic, and though he and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the district in 2012, it went for President Obama in 2008.
3 Speaker John Boehner stays. The beleaguered Boehner triggered the crisis with his sudden decision to leave Congress at the end of this month. His escape plan faltered when Kevin McCarthy, his designated successor, couldn’t get enough GOP votes to win. Can anyone? Nobody knows. If Boehner stays, expect the same conflict — topped by a layer of scorn that the party couldn’t find anyone to replace him.
4 The GOP picks a caretaker. This might be the only way for someone to get enough votes to win the speakership: A non-controversial person, preferably one who is retiring, agrees to do the job, but only until January 2017. Yet even such a calming figure (assuming one exists) would be sucked immediately into situations that require either confrontation or compromise.
5 GOP presidential candidates tell House Republicans to get their act together or abandon hope of winning the White House. Normally, this would be a no-brainer. But the GOP ’16 field is as divided as its congressional wing, and the my-way-or-thehighway faction is predominant.
6 A GOP moderate becomes speaker with Democratic support. Government operates smoothly, compromises abound, we even get investment in infrastructure (!), the GOP wins new respect for its governing abilities and a Republican rides that to the White House.
Would Democrats be willing to take one for Team America and in the process boost Team GOP? This scenario is so unlikely, we’ll probably never have to choose.
Jill Lawrence, author of the Brookings Institution’s Profiles in Negotiation series, is a columnist for U.S. News & World Report and a member of USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors.