With Kelly out, what’s next?
Will coach join Mariota on Titans? Will Holmgren return with 49ers?
Chip Kelly’s ouster by the Philadelphia Eagles makes three openings for head coaches, and the NFL season still isn’t over. The number could end up as high as 10, though with several situations undecided, the guess here is it ends up right around the seven openings of the past two years.
Here are a dozen questions for Black Monday and beyond:
Where does Chip Kelly go?
If he stays in the NFL, the most obvious landing spot is the Ten- nessee Titans. They have the quarterback, Marcus Mariota, for whom Kelly tried to trade up in this year’s draft to run his uptempo offense. But the team surely will have questions about how much power Kelly wants as well as his relationships with players and colleagues. Any candidate will have questions about the Titans, too: Is the family of late owner Bud Adams going to sell? Will controlling owner Amy Adams Strunk remain in charge? When will the team hire a permanent president and CEO? Is general manager Ruston Webster staying? In terms of organiza- tional stability, this one ranks near the bottom. The Cleveland Browns, who made a run at Kelly in 2013, aren’t much better. Would the San Francisco 49ers fire Jim Tomsula after one season and see if Kelly can unleash deposed QB Colin Kaepernick’s talents? Kelly’s availability is so fresh even interested teams might not have all the answers yet.
Does Sean Payton leave the New Orleans Saints?
He’ll have his usual year-end meeting with GM Mickey Loomis
on Monday, and no scenario can be ruled out. Status quo? Exploration of a “trade” both sides would have to approve? Release from a contract that runs through 2017 and makes Payton one of the NFL’s highest-paid coaches? Loomis stepping aside to focus on his duties with the New Orleans Pelicans, handing the GM reins to Payton? All that seems certain is if Payton became available he’d have multiple suitors.
Who will be the hottest assistant coaches?
The same names come up in conversations with people around the league. They include offensive coordinators Adam Gase (Chicago Bears), Hue Jackson (Cincinnati Bengals), Josh McDaniels (New England Patriots) and Mike Shula (Carolina Panthers); defensive coordinators Teryl Austin (Detroit Lions) and Sean McDermott (Panthers); and assistant head coaches Anthony Lynn (Buffalo Bills) and Doug Marrone (Jacksonville Jaguars). But every team has its own criteria, and some of those candidates (see: McDaniels) are expected to be highly selective.
Will Chuck Pagano be a head coach in 2016?
His track record with the Indianapolis Colts and a dearth of proven candidates strongly suggest yes. He says he’s still fighting to remain the Colts’ coach, but his contract is set to expire Sunday night, allowing him a jump start on exploring the market. If the Titans don’t get Kelly, it would make a lot of sense to look at the coach who has ruled the AFC South in recent years.
What’s the best job available?
Some would say the Colts, given the presence of quarterback Andrew Luck. But look no further than the handling of Pagano’s status to understand the issues of working for ever-involved owner Jim Irsay. Plus, the roster needs help, and it’s unclear if Irsay intends to stand by GM Ryan Grigson, who’s under contract through 2016. A better bet is a stable, patient organization such as the New York Giants, who also have a quarterback in place. Final decisions on coach Tom Coughlin, who might decide he’s done as his 70th birthday approaches, and GM Jerry Reese aren’t expected to be made until the season is over. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo could be an inhouse candidate.
Will any college coaches make the leap?
The No. 1 candidate is Stanford’s David Shaw, but the belief is he’s not leaving unless the perfect opportunity arises, perhaps with a team such as the Giants. UCLA’s Jim Mora is another frequently mentioned name, but it seems unlikely he’ll get a third chance, at least this year. It’s a long shot Jim Harbaugh would leave Michigan after one year. Beyond that, any possibilities would qualify as outside the box, Arkansas’ Bret Bielema, Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald and Arizona State’s Todd Graham among them.
Who ends up with the Miami Dolphins?
The Dolphins want a coach with fire after the one-note Joe Philbin era. They also need to develop quarterback Ryan Tannehill. One logical fit: Jackson, whose offensive creativity and passion are well-known. But owner Stephen Ross might aim for a bigger splash. The structure Ross has espoused, with the per- sonnel boss and coach reporting directly to him, could turn off some candidates. Executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum is leading the coaching search, which likely insulates him from any changes. But nothing can be considered off the table if the Dolphins can land the coach they want.
Who replaces Kelly?
After cutting bait on an offensive-minded NFL outsider, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Eagles went the opposite direction with a defensive coach they know well: McDermott, who grew up in their organization under Andy Reid and Jim Johnson. Interim coach Pat Shurmur, also from Reid’s coaching tree, could be a candidate, too. Another candidate with Pennsylvania roots is Austin, who, like Tom Donahoe, the Eagles’ recently promoted senior director of player personnel, hails from the Pittsburgh suburbs.
Who’s trying to get back in?
Mike Holmgren, who has taken two teams to the Super Bowl, would be all in on a chance to coach his hometown 49ers. Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz could get another shot, and Mike Smith’s 66-46 record in seven seasons with the Atlanta Falcons figures to at least get him looks.
Will the Lions fire Jim Caldwell?
The decision will be up to the next GM, new team president Rod Wood reiterated this week. But the GM doesn’t figure to be in place for at least a week or two, meaning Caldwell may still be on the job in mid-January without knowing his fate. Not ideal.
How many other GM jobs turn over?
Probably more than last year, when there were three (and a few other organizations restructured). The Titans and Browns seem to be leaning in that direction. The Colts’ and Giants’ situations are uncertain. And there’s persistent speculation that structural changes could be coming for the Saints and perhaps the Texans. Names that figure to come up for openings: Chris Ballard (Kansas City Chiefs), Morocco Brown (Browns), Nick Caserio (Patriots), Eric DeCosta (Baltimore Ravens), Omar Khan (Pittsburgh Steelers), Trent Kirchner (Seattle Seahawks), Terry McDonough (Arizona Cardinals), George Paton (Minnesota Vikings), Chris Polian (Jaguars) and
Eliot Wolf (Green Bay Packers).
Is there another surprise coming ?
A public endorsement from Bills ownership Wednesday removed coach Rex Ryan from the mix. The Browns firing Mike Pettine or GM Ray Farmer wouldn’t qualify, given Pettine has commented about a lack of unity and owner Jimmy Haslam has been seeking opinions about how to proceed. Perhaps the most complicated situation is on the San Diego Chargers, where Mike McCoy has been included in planning sessions for next year. His third season was marred by injuries, and any coaching search would have to work against a backdrop of uncertainty about where the team will train and play in 2016.