NEW YEAR’S SIX (MINUS THE SEMIS)
THURSDAY
PEACH BOWL IN ATLANTA No. 8 Florida State (10-2) vs. No. 16 Houston (12-1) Time/TV: noon ET/ESPN. Surface: Artificial. Pregame.com line: Florida State by 7. Sagarin difference: FSU by 7.86. The Cougars are thrilled to be here. It has taken the program a long time to work its way back from the ashes of the defunct Southwest Conference. The Seminoles, very much part of the establishment as frequent national title contenders, will provide a good yardstick for the American Athletic Conference champs to measure themselves against. Much of Houston’s success can be attributed to putting up big scores. Dual-threat QB Greg Ward is the catalyst, entering the bowl with 3,631 yards of total offense this season. The FSU defense, however, is the stingiest the Cougars will face this season.
FRIDAY
FIESTA BOWL IN GLENDALE, ARIZ. No. 5 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2) Time/TV: 1 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Grass. Pregame.com line: Ohio State by 6. Sagarin difference: Ohio State by 4.38. This matchup easily could have appeared on an even bigger stage with a break or two. As it is, it’s arguably the best of the non-College Football Playoff games, with the winner likely to earn a top-five finish. That’s small comfort for the defending Playoff champion Buckeyes, but in their most recent outing they looked to finally be in top form. OSU RB Ezekiel Elliott will get all kinds of attention from Fighting Irish LBs Jaylon Smith and Joe Schmidt. OSU QB J.T. Barrett will try to keep them off balance with his mobility. Notre Dame is expected to regain the services of RB C.J. Prosise (ankle). Any ground help he can lend will make QB DeShone Kizer’s job easier.
ROSE BOWL IN PASADENA, CALIF. No. 6 Stanford (11-2) vs. No. 7 Iowa (12-1) Time/TV: 5 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Grass. Pregame.com line: Stanford by 6. Sagarin difference: Stanford by 4.48. The Hawkeyes and their enthusiastic followers enjoyed an impressive season, though they were one defensive stop from an even more spectacular one. For what it’s worth, the teams have one common opponent. Northwestern shut down Stanford back in Week 1, while the Hawkeyes handled the Wildcats with relative ease. Both teams are mostly healthy considering the long season. The time off was especially beneficial for Iowa, which should have QB C.J. Beathard and RB Jordan Canzeri at full speed. Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan shook off a bad opening day to post solid numbers of 24 TD passes with a completion rate of 68.6%. He got a lot of help, of course, from all-purpose RB Christian McCaffrey.
SUGAR BOWL IN NEW ORLEANS No. 13 Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. No. 15 Mississippi (9-3) Time/TV: 8:30 p.m. ET/ESPN. Surface: Artificial. Pregame.com line: Mississippi by 71⁄ 2. Sagarin difference: Mississippi by 3.15. The Cowboys dropped their last two games in the top-heavy Big 12 but got this at-large invitation thanks to their head-to-head triumph earlier against TCU. There are, however, a couple of reasons for optimism for Oklahoma State fans. The Cowboys should have QB Mason Rudolph back from a foot injury that kept him out of nearly the entire Bedlam loss to Oklahoma. In addition, Mississippi will be without standout DE Robert Nkemdiche after an on-campus incident. The Rebels offense, however, should be in good shape as QB Chad Kelly and WR Laquon Treadwell provide a constant big-play threat.