Both Clinton, Sanders see Iowa as victory
Hillary Clinton’s
DES MOINES bid to keep Bernie Sanders from becoming the Barack Obama of 2016 was put to the test Monday night as the race remained too close to call.
After more than 90% precincts reported, she clung to a sliver of a lead over Sanders as key precincts in the area of Des Moines were late in reporting.
Iowa’s caucuses tested whether the enthusiasm of young, lower-income and more liberal voters lining up behind the Democratic socialist from Vermont was a match for Clinton’s sophisticated ground operation and her support from loyal Democratic voters, moderates and particularly women.
The question was whether Sanders could drive the historic participation that lifted Obama’s 2008 campaign by bringing voters into the process or if more reliable caucusgoers would propel Clinton to victory.
Even if Clinton wins, it won’t be as decisive as her campaign had hoped as Sanders also prepared to declare victory.
“I stand here tonight breathing a big sigh of relief,” Clinton said.
“We always knew it was going to be a tough campaign,” former senator Tom Harkin told a crowd of hundreds wait-
ing for Clinton to arrive at Drake University in Des Moines. “A win is a win.”
The third Democratic candidate in the race, former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, decided to suspend his campaign after barely registering support in caucus returns.
As the votes were counted, Clinton said it was rare that the Democratic Party had a chance to choose between two compelling candidates. “I am a progressive who gets things done,” she said before an enthusiastic crowd.
Sanders implored his backers to show up to caucus on his behalf. “We will struggle tonight if the voter turnout is low. That’s a fact,” Sanders said to supporters and volunteers in Des Moines.
A Des Moines Register/ Bloomberg Politics poll released Saturday shows the different demographic support for Clinton and Sanders.
Among those under the age of 35, Sanders drew 63%. Clinton did better with more reliable caucusgoers, including those over 65. Overall, the poll had Clinton with a narrow lead of 45% to 42% in the final days before the caucus.
Sanders did better among those who had never caucused and independent voters who couldn’t participate in a Democratic primary unless they changed their registration on caucus night.
Iowa Democrats have had a better record in picking eventual presidential nominees than Republicans have. Barack Obama in 2008, John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000 all won Iowa en route to the nomination. The past two Iowa winners for the GOP, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008, ultimately fell short in their bid for the Republican nod.
A Sanders loss could make it difficult for him to recover his footing. Though polls favor him to win New Hampshire, which will hold a primary Feb. 9, as the race moves south, starting with South Carolina, Clinton is ahead by a wide margin.
Alternatively, much as Iowa was instrumental to Obama’s path to the nomination, a Sanders win here could deliver a significant blow to Clinton. His campaign said a win would generate enough momentum to weather Clinton’s advantage in the states that vote March 1, stretching the competition well into the spring.
The race hinged on turnout, which peaked in 2008 at 240,000. Though some models predicted Sanders didn’t have to match that level, he may have to come close to beat Clinton.
A recent Monmouth University poll, which screened for likely caucusgoers, predicted about 110,000 Democratic voters would show up to caucus. In addition, the Iowa secretary of State’s office does not reflect a similar surge in registrations like it did a month before the 2008 competition.
Unlike the more straightforward Republican caucuses, Democrats use a more interactive and freewheeling approach.
Voters form groups and announce their support for a candidate. If any candidate’s group does not meet a certain threshold for viability, voters can either go home or join another viable candidate’s group.
One advantage Clinton has is that her team has been trained on how to court the supporters of O’Malley. His supporters can choose to move over to Clinton or Sanders, which could prove pivotal.
Clinton was more organized than in 2008 and enjoyed solid support. According to The Des
Moines Register’s poll, 83% of Clinton’s supporters had made up their mind, while 69% of Sanders’ supporters said the same.