Out of Iowa, a different race emerges
It’s only the start, but vote indicates end won’t come fast
It was a big night in Iowa Monday for anti-establishment candidates — but not always the one who expected it.
A Republican race that seemed to be heading toward a romp to the nomination by Donald Trump suddenly has turned into a fierce threeway battle with a victory by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the opening contest of the 2016 campaign. Both Trump and Cruz are outsider candidates eyed warily by the GOP establishment.
And in the Democratic race, a hairs-breadth divided Hillary Clinton and challenger Bernie Sanders, a stronger showing by the Vermont senator than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. While Clinton did better than her humiliating third-place showing here in 2008, it means she once again heads to the New Hampshire primary with something to prove.
Cruz managed to derail, at least temporarily, the phenomenon that has dominated the Republican presidential campaign so far, defeating Trump in the opening Iowa caucuses Monday. The billionaire businessman only narrowly managed to edge out Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
The polls were proven wrong: Trump had led in the last dozen statewide surveys.
“God bless the great state of Iowa,” Cruz said in his victory speech. “Iowa has sent notice that the Republican nominee and the next president of the United States will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment, will not be chosen by the lobbyists, but will be chosen by ... we the people, the American people.”
Trump’s unexpected defeat poses a test for the political neophyte — who routinely ridicules “losers” — and guarantees an extended contest for the nomination. Cruz’s superior organization and more conventional political strategy bested the outsider candidate. The Texas senator succeeded with appeals to Iowa’s evangelical Christians and attacks on Trump as something other than a reliable conservative. What’s more, Trump’s decision to skip the final Republican debate, complaining about being ill-treated by the Fox News sponsors, may have cost him among Iowans who thought he should have been there.
“Trump’s showing raises questions about how he will handle defeat and whether he can broaden his appeal in a party where ideology is more important that personal charisma,” says Stu Rothenberg of the non-partisan Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Re
port. “Cruz’s victory should give him momentum, establishing him as the conservative alterna- tive to Trump.”
Rubio hoped to emerge as the mainstream alternative to Trump and Cruz, both of whom are viewed with suspicion and worse by the Republican establishment. “If you don’t want Ted Cruz or Donald Trump as the nominee, you better get on board with Marco Rubio,” spokesman Alex Conant said happily on MSNBC as returns came in.
That could be sobering news for such rivals as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida governor Jeb Bush.
Just about everybody now heads to New Hampshire, which holds the first-in-the-nation primary next week. Sanders and Trump have double-digit leads in statewide polls there, although history says there can be major upheavals in the wake of the Iowa outcome. Everybody except for- mer Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a Republican, and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, a Democrat. Both were suspending their campaigns last night after drawing negligible support in the caucuses.
To be sure, the Iowa caucuses are only the start of the presidential season, not the end. Even a decisive win doesn’t settle the race. The last two Republican winners, Huckabee in 2008 and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum in 2012, didn’t end up as the nominee.
But Cruz is in a better position to capitalize on his momentum from Iowa than either Huckabee or Santorum were. Cruz’s campaign on Monday reported having almost $19 million in the bank, and he has organized extensively not only in the opening states but also in the Southern primaries that follow in March.
With a defiant message and a minimum of policy details, Trump had attracted support not only from Republican regulars but also from voters who hadn’t participated in the caucuses or been particularly engaged in politics before — many of them working-class whites who feel squeezed financially and ignored by the nation’s political leaders. The question was whether the folks who flooded his rallies and bought his campaign hats would show up at the caucuses.
“Everything we’re doing is wrong,” Trump told a caucus meeting being held in a Catholic church in West Des Moines. “We’re in trouble, but we’re going to turn it around. We’re going to make America great again.”