ALSO-RANS CAN BEAT TRUMP
Divided field could deny The Donald the winning majority he needs
Conventional wisdom insists that mainstream Republicans can stop Donald Trump’s relentless drive for the GOP nomination only if they coalesce around a single candidate and push less credible contenders to drop out. Whatever the outcome of Iowa’s Monday caucuses, the chorus will likely get louder than ever.
Conventional wisdom — as usual regarding the 2016 presidential race — is exactly wrong.
The best strategy for sending The Donald back to Trump Tower involves a multitude of rival candidates, each scooping up delegates here and there, thereby denying the front-runner the absolute convention majority he needs for first ballot nomination.
SELECTING CONVENTIONEERS When the GOP gathers in Cleveland on July 18, the party will welcome about 2,470 delegates. Of these, 168 will be selected by “party leaders” — representing Republican stalwarts in Congress, legislatures and the national committee. Trump remains unpopular with this group, requiring a solid majority of the 2,302 or so other delegates to be selected in caucuses and primaries.
The challenge for him is that 60% of these crucial conventioneers will be selected in proportional, not winner-take-all contests. In proportional primaries and caucuses, any candidate with 20% of the vote (or in some cases, even lower thresholds) gets a share of the state’s delegates.
That means even if Trump earned a solid victory in the Iowa caucuses Monday and goes on to earn a second victory in next week’s New Hampshire primary, he will still fail to capture most of the delegates. Under Iowa’s rules, for instance, if Trump won 35% of caucus participants, with the rest of the field — Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, et al — splitting the remainder of the vote, he would win but end up with only 10 of the Hawkeye State’s 30 delegates.
If this pattern repeated itself in state after state, the front-runner would fall far short of winning the 50% plus one of the delegates required for nomination. The result would be an “open convention” for the first time for the GOP in 68 years, with wheeling and dealing by the various candidates and other power brokers.
The delegates would move on to a second ballot or even beyond, with most of them freed to switch their allegiance to any candidate of their choice. With party regulars deeply worried over Trump’s potential to lead the GOP to a sweeping defeat, The Donald’s chance of emerging victorious in this situation would look slim. GANG ADVANTAGES In short, he can guarantee himself victory only by winning more than 50% of the vote in state after state, and his chances of achieving such majorities would clearly improve if rival candidates began to quit and he faced only a single, formidable opponent. In other words, if the race narrowed to Trump vs. Cruz, The Donald’s chances of getting his majority of delegates would look vastly better than if he continued to face Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich and the rest of the gang.
Even beleaguered, frustrated candidates could have a role to play: Sen. Rand Paul might have gained little national traction, but on March 5, the Kentucky caucuses will award 46 delegates. Any candidate winning 5% of the vote would be entitled to his share, so the popular favorite son could combine with other contenders to keep Trump well below a majority.
In the Ohio and Florida primaries ( both on March 15), local heroes could prove even more decisive. Those two states deliver their delegates on a rare “winner take all” basis, so Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, regardless of their success elsewhere, could remain in the race to boost home state hopes of blocking Trump.
Trump’s fans might complain that this strategy seems undemocratic, even conspiratorial: If their guy gets the most votes across the country, doesn’t he deserve the nomination? But this argument would apply only if he won 50% or more of the overall primary vote, an unlikely outcome if he continued to face multiple opponents. If the front-runner continues to draw ardent opposition from 60% of primary voters, then he hardly represents a majority of the party.
On this basis, vote splits and the stubborn survival of less popular candidates won’t help the front-runner secure the nomination. In fact, that stubbornness might offer the best chance for pragmatic Republicans to replace The Donald at the Cleveland convention with a less polarizing, and more electable, alternative.