Sanders gives Clinton a surprisingly tough challenge
A year ago, Bernie Sanders was barely a dot on Hillary Clinton’s horizon, drawing less than 5% in the Real Clear Politics Iowa poll average against Clinton’s dominating 57%. Pundits gave the Vermont senator, who calls himself a democratic socialist, little or no chance of catching the former secretary of State.
So much for punditry. In a collapse eerily similar to her Iowa experience in 2008, when she was eclipsed by Barack Obama and John Edwards, Clinton lost ground and Sanders grew stronger until he tied her at 37% in the polls in September. Clinton has looked shaky ever since. As this edition of USA TODAY went to press Monday night, Clinton was leading, but so narrowly that it wasn’t possible to say who had won.
As the candidates move on to New Hampshire, two lessons stand out.
One is that the battle between experience and change seems to be a toss-up, at least for now. The fact that Clinton has been at the highest levels of government for almost a quarter-century — first lady, senator of New York, secretary of State — is her hole card. She runs rings around Sanders on most issues during Democratic debates, and she’s on a first-name basis with world leaders Sanders has never met. Clinton’s record of working with Senate Republicans also suggests she’d be better at getting things done than Sanders, who has mostly been a gadfly well outside the mainstream on major issues.
But portraying herself as the keeper (or tweaker) of the status quo on Obamacare and Wall Street regulations is uninspiring for many Democratic voters compared with Sanders’ galvanizing promises to punish financial firms and move to single-payer health care. After eight years, even voters who approve of President Obama’s record are ready for something new. A second lesson is that voters don’t necessarily live in the real world. Sanders’ promises to do things that not even a Democratic president with a Democratic House and Senate could do in Obama’s first term are wildly unrealistic, not to mention unaffordable. But Clinton hasn’t found an effective way to say that, and many voters don’t seem to care.
Even if she squeaks by Sanders in Iowa, Clinton isn’t home free. Sanders is an 18-point favorite in New Hampshire. And, perhaps more ominously, the FBI continues to investigate her private email arrangement.