THE OSCAR ODDS: WHO HAS THE EDGE?
Even the sports-mad betting casinos of Las Vegas will hunker down for entertainment’s biggest night of the year. When showtime rolls around Sunday for the 88th Academy Awards (ABC, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT), “we tell the horse race and sports people that they have to leave,” says Johnny Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas casino. “Because it’s entertainment night.” For the past 25 years, Avello has set odds (for entertainment purposes, not betting) and claims 80% accuracy for his picks in the six major categories. And seasoned entertainment professionals monitor every moment of awards season to forecast the winners on awards website GoldDerby.com. Here’s what prognosticators expect for Oscar night:
DIRECTOR
VEGAS: The Revenant director Alejandro González Iñárritu is “pulling away” from the field (1-to-3 odds), Avello says, followed by Mad Max: Fury Road’s George Miller (5 to 1).
PUNDITS: GoldDerby.com editor Tom O’Neil says 23 of his site’s 27 experts predict Iñárritu, with four “holding out” for Miller. But it seems a “foregone conclusion” that voters will chose Iñárritu for the second year in a row (after 2015’s Birdman win).
SUPPORTING ACTOR
VEGAS: Avello says the big odds are on Creed’s Sylvester Stallone (1-to-2 odds), but look out for “possible upsets here” by Bridge of Spies’ Mark Rylance (5 to 2) or even the “well-liked” Mark Ruffalo from Spotlight (14 to 1).
PUNDITS: O’Neil says 23 GoldDerby experts are for Stallone, two for Rylance, two for Ruffalo. Stallone is “an Oscar inevitability,” O’Neil says.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
VEGAS: Avello points out there’s more upset potential here for The Danish Girl’s Alicia Vikander (even odds) than in any other acting category, including the “main competition” of Steve
Jobs’ Kate Winslet (2 to 1). PUNDITS: O’Neil says 24 experts are for Vikander, three for Winslet. “But the race is actually much closer than these numbers show.”
ACTOR
VEGAS: “There’s no such thing as a sure thing,” Avello says. But Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant “is as big a favorite (1-to-20 odds) as we’ve ever had.”
PUNDITS: All 27 GoldDerby experts have chosen DiCaprio. “That’s a slam-dunk shoe-in,” O’Neil says.
VEGAS: With 1-to-9 odds, Room’s Brie Larson is “pretty locked in to win,” Avello says. “Everyone else is a long shot.”
PUNDITS: All 27 GoldDerby experts have sided with Larson. “She’s had no serious competition all season,” O’Neil says.
BEST PICTURE
VEGAS: The Revenant has surged to the top with even odds over main contenders Spotlight (8 to 5) and The Big Short (6 to 1). PUNDITS: The race has split the GoldDerby field with 18 experts for Revenant, followed by five for The Big
Short and four for Spotlight. “It’s really a total toss-up,” O’Neil says. “Three films have a serious chance to win.”