FIVE TAKE-AWAYS FROM LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS IN IRAN Gregg Zoroya
‘The people want to move forward’ and improve ties with U.S., analysts say
Reactions ranged from caution to optimism for Iran's future following strong gains by reformists and moderates in Iran's parliamentary elections last week. Here are five take-aways:
WHAT IRANIANS WANT
Analysts said voters endorsed the more moderate leadership of President Hassan Rouhani, who was elected in 2013 and promised to improve an economy crippled by international sanctions.
That is why he backed last year’s agreement with world powers to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of sanctions.
His supporters — reformists and moderates together as a bloc over the hard-liners — won a majority in both the parliament and the clerical Assembly of Experts. The assembly will choose the next supreme religious leader, who runs the country.
About 60% of eligible voters — 33 million people — cast ballots in Friday’s vote. “The people want to move forward,” said Elizabeth Shakman Hurd, an associate professor at Northwestern University and an expert on Iranian politics.
IMPACT ON U.S. RELATIONS The Iranian people seem to favor better ties with the United States, which has been demonized by Iranian leaders since a revolution overthrew the oppressive reign of the U.S.-backed shah in 1979.
U.S. experts warn moves by Rouhani and his allies could be blocked by hard-liners still in power.
“One election is not going to change everything,” said Alireza Nader, a senior international policy analyst at RAND Corp.
THE NUCLEAR DEAL Experts agreed that the vote signaled strong support for the accord, though both moderates and hard-liners favored the part of the deal that lifted sanctions.
“This is a population that’s outward-looking. They’re tired of being unemployed. They’re tired of the effects of the sanctions. They want to reach out to the world,” Hurd said. The question going forward is whether Iranian hardliners will comply with terms meant to deter Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons for at least 10 years.
OBAMA’S LEGACY It is too soon to tell whether President Obama’s push for the nuclear deal and better relations with Iran are validated by the election.
Some analysts see good news for Obama’s legacy, others point to past elections in which moderates prevailed while human rights abuses and anti-American policies remained unchanged or grew worse. “Even if the parliament moves more toward the center, I don’t think it’s going to become more reformist,” Nader said.
ISRAEL, IRAN’S SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM A more moderate government is unlikely to lead to any significant change in policy toward Israel, which Iranian leaders consider to be an avowed enemy, or Iran’s backing for U.S.-designated terrorist groups such as the Hezbollah militia based in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and many Republicans in the U.S. Congress have warned that Iran is likely to use some of the tens of billions it gets from a lifting of sanctions to support terrorist groups.
“One election is not going to change everything.” Alireza Nader, a senior international policy analyst at RAND Corp.