SIX BOLD PROJECTIONS FOR MARCH MADNESS
No. 1 conference seeds could be on upset alert
College men’s basketball fans can rejoice. It’s March. Except the madness feels like it’s already begun in this volatile season in which the current top five teams in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll have lost a combined 23 games compared with nine losses at this time a year ago.
The bracketology seeds have shifted drastically, and all signs point to an unpredictable NCAA tournament. Here are six bold projections ahead of conference championship week and Selection Sunday:
ZERO NO. 1 SEEDS IN POWER CONFERENCES WILL WIN THEIR TOURNAMENTS
The regular-season champion in a power conference always has a strong chance of winning the league tournament. Last season, five of the six power conference No. 1 seeds did that. But this isn’t a usual season. There is a strong chance North Carolina (Atlantic Coast), Kansas (Big 12), Indiana (Big Ten), Villanova (Big East), Texas A&M (Southeastern) and Oregon (Pac-12) won’t secure automatic NCAA bids next week. Expect these teams to prevail, even though they really won’t be upsets. ACC: Virginia Big 12: Iowa State Big Ten: Michigan State Big East: Xavier SEC: Vanderbilt
Pac- 12: Utah
DENZEL VALENTINE WILL WIN NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR
With no disrespect to front-runner Buddy Hield of Oklahoma, Michigan State guard Valentine is deserving. Though Hield is having a huge season — shooting 48.1% from three-point range and nine games with 30 or more points — Valentine’s overall numbers are off the charts. He averages 19.6 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists a game.
No player in the last two decades has recorded those kinds of numbers in all of those categories. The 6-5 senior has delivered in the clutch, as well. He steered Michigan State to a victory against Kansas in November and has been Tom Izzo’s go-to guy down the stretch all season.
Hield makes his team better by scoring in high volume. Valentine, however, does it in a variety of ways, including some that don’t show up on the stat sheet.
GREG GARD WILL WIN NATIONAL COACH OF THE YEAR
There has been so much talk about Gard securing the permanent job as head coach at Wisconsin that Bo Ryan’s replacement hasn’t been considered in the discussion for the country’s best coach. But why not? He has helped the Badgers (19-10, 11-5 Big Ten) grow and weather the storm while keeping Ryan’s winning philosophy alive.
A fantastic season often is based on talent as much as coaching. And that’s what made Ryan so special — he won without the type of top-tier talent that John Calipari or Bill Self hauls in. It’s also what makes Gard special; the Badgers have two veterans and a whole new cast. Plus he’s driven the team to success in a transitioning year when adversity came in large doses.
SATURDAY WILL BE RICK PITINO’S LAST GAME AT LOUISVILLE
The Hall of Fame coach is taking time to decide whether this will be his last season. It would be a shocker simply because Pitino has been the face of the program — and a signature figure in the sport — for the last 15 years.
He hasn’t completely shot down the idea of stepping away, and if he did, it certainly wouldn’t be on a high note.
Louisville will end its season Saturday in a game at Virginia because of a self-imposed postseason ban by the university after an alleged pay-for-sex scandal during Pitino’s tenure.
“This team rejuvenated me in a great way, because I have awesome guys who are playing for nothing still giving me incredible effort each night,” Pitino said Monday. “I’ll step away from the game after the season and say, ‘Are you having fun?’ I’ll look at it and do some thinking and then let the chips fall where they may.”
MONMOUTH WILL BE THE ONLY MIDMAJOR TEAM TO GET AN AT-LARGE BID AND WON’T DISAPPOINT AS A CINDERELLA
The Hawks getting into the NCAA tournament and staging a storybook run would be almost too good to be true. Often when a Cinderella is born, the national audience doesn’t know about the team. Yet Monmouth established itself as a lovable group way before March thanks to its bench players’ creative celebrations. And 5-8 point guard Justin Robinson (20.2 points, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals a game) is a star.
The Hawks could be the only midmajor to get an at-large bid. Gonzaga’s profile is not good enough to get in if it loses in the West Coast Conference tournament. Wichita State has a solid chance, but all signs point to the Shockers winning another Missouri Valley Conference tournament title in St. Louis.
That leaves Monmouth, which boasts a surprisingly legit résumé that includes wins vs. UCLA, Notre Dame, Southern California and Georgetown. The Hawks will be the No. 1 seed in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tourney, but Iona has a good shot; the Gaels beat Monmouth by 16 points on Feb. 19. If that scenario unfolds and the NCAA committee gives the Hawks an at-large bid, the red carpet for another Florida Gulf Coast will be rolled out.
UNDER-THE-RADAR STARS WILL SHINE
Alec Peters, Valparaiso: The junior big man averages 17.5 points and 8.3 rebounds on a veteran-laden team that should win the Horizon League. He had 18 points in a near-upset of Maryland last year.
Dallas Moore, North Florida: The junior guard averages 19.7 points and 6.1 assists for the Ospreys’ high-octane offense.
Craig Bradshaw, Belmont: The senior guard, who is capable of 30-point games, averages 16.3 points for the Rick Byrd-coached squad.
Justin Sears, Yale: The senior forward averages 16.7 points and 7.4 rebounds for the Ivy League’s best team right now.
Stefan Jankovic, Hawaii: The junior big man averages 16.3 points and 6.7 rebounds. He had 28 points in a win against Cal State-Northridge on Saturday.
Jameel Warney, Stony Brook: The senior big man plays with a high motor, averaging 18.7 points and 10.2 rebounds.
Joel Bolomboy, Weber State: The senior forward has NBA potential, averaging 17.6 points and 13.0 rebounds for the Big Sky favorite. If he’s healthy, he’ll be a force.